Somalia Faces Deepening Hunger as Flood Threat Puts Lives and Farms at Risk

The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis projects that 5.4 million people will face crisis levels of hunger or worse during those months, including 1.5 million facing emergency levels or worse.

For families across Somalia already struggling to find enough food, the coming rains could bring another devastating loss: flooded farms, missing livestock and roads that no longer lead to markets or treatment centres. The Federal Government and United Nations warn that anticipated El Niño-related flooding could deepen hunger and child malnutrition between October and December 2026, leaving communities with fewer ways to survive after repeated drought, insecurity and rising food costs.

The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis projects that 5.4 million people will face crisis levels of hunger or worse during those months, including 1.5 million facing emergency levels or worse. Humanitarian Coordinator George Conway called for urgent resources to protect livelihoods, prepare communities and reduce the disease and displacement risks that flooding could bring.

Children Face a Growing Nutrition Emergency

An estimated 1.92 million children under five will need treatment for acute malnutrition between July 2026 and June 2027, including 433,000 with severe acute malnutrition, its deadliest form. Nearly 62 per cent of the malnutrition burden falls on rural populations, where reaching health services can already involve difficult journeys. Displaced communities in Belet Weyne and parts of Baidoa's displacement settlements are projected to reach Extremely Critical levels, classified as IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5, as floods threaten access to essential services.

Conditions in Burhakaba district, which faced a risk of famine in April, have improved following the Gu rains and an expanded humanitarian response. Baidoa's displaced population remains a particular concern because of catastrophic hunger risks and extremely critical malnutrition. Its famine-risk assessment relies on evidence collected in April 2026, with a follow-up assessment planned for October to establish the current level of risk.

Floods Could Force One Million From Their Homes

Somalia's Disaster Management Agency estimates that between 2.5 million and 3.5 million people could be exposed to flooding, with around one million potentially displaced from farming and grazing areas. Heavy rains during the October–December Deyr season could destroy crops, kill livestock and cut off income and food supplies, especially in riverine communities and areas where families combine farming with livestock keeping. Successive poor seasons, including below-average Gu rainfall in 2026, have already weakened their ability to recover.

Disaster Management Agency Commissioner Mohamuud Moallim Abdullahi said the government is coordinating with humanitarian partners and state authorities, urging donors to help protect people before conditions deteriorate. FAO Representative Etienne Peterschmitt stressed that families facing hunger cannot absorb the loss of harvests or animals, calling for funding that turns early warnings into practical protection and supports rural recovery. WFP Country Director Hameed Nuru said assistance and early preparations are underway, with available support determining how many families can be reached.

Aid Must Reach Communities Before Roads Close

The government and UN are calling for continued food and cash assistance alongside treatment for moderate and severe acute malnutrition. Their appeal includes positioning food, nutrition supplies and emergency livelihood support in vulnerable areas before October flooding restricts road access, and preparing cash assistance systems for increased demand. Expanded outreach would connect food support with nutrition screening, healthcare, safe water and sanitation for rural residents and displaced families in the highest-risk districts.

UNICEF and its partners supported more than 2.25 million admissions for children with severe acute malnutrition between 2021 and 2025, demonstrating the importance of timely treatment. UNICEF Representative Sandra Lattouf warned that funding shortages now threaten these services and the delivery of essential supplies. UN agencies are expanding coordinated assistance in areas classified at Phase 4 and above, including displacement settlements in Beledweyne and Baidoa, and seeking sustained funding for food security, nutrition and mortality monitoring. Decisions made in the coming weeks will shape whether families can obtain food and children can receive treatment once floodwaters cut communities off.