INSTANT VIEW-Japan ruling coalition seen keeping majority in upper house

The widely expected outcome comes two days after the fatal shooting of prominent LDP member and power broker, former premier Shinzo Abe. The LDP and the Komeito party were likely to win between 69 83 seats out of the 125 contested in Sunday's vote, according to NHK's exit polls.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was projected to keep a majority in the upper house with its junior coalition partner in Sunday's election, public broadcaster NHK reported. The widely expected outcome comes two days after the fatal shooting of prominent LDP member and power broker, former premier Shinzo Abe.

The LDP and the Komeito party were likely to win between 69 83 seats out of the 125 contested in Sunday's vote, according to NHK's exit polls. REACTION:

TORU SUEHIRO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DAIWA SECURITIES, JAPAN "It may have become more difficult for Kishida to phase out Abenomics. It will be easier to stabilise factional friction within the ruling party by sustaining Abe's policies. The public may also oppose any early roll-back of Abe's policies. Taken together, the chance of Kishida succeeding Abe's policies may have strengthened. "Monetary policy was the centre-piece of Abenomics, and Kishida doesn't appear to have very strong views on monetary policy. It's become easier to continue with the path laid out under Abenomics. As for the next Bank of Japan governor, it's likely to go to someone like Masayoshi Amamiya or Hiroshi Nakaso, career central bankers who are considered as strong candidates. It's hard to expect any sudden interest rate hike or monetary tightening."

SHIGENOBU TAMURA, POLITICAL ANALYST AND FORMER LDP STAFFER "Given that the coalition has gained a majority, going over their goal, and the four parties that want to revise the constitution also have gone over the needed number of seats, you can say that this is a huge victory for the LDP. It's a very good result for the Kishida government.

"There's a possibility that the impact of Abe's killing led to the victory of the LDP in hotly contested districts. They've also expanded their seats in proportional representation. "I think that in governing after this, Kishida will be influenced by the idea of carrying out Abe's wishes. That's especially true with revising the constitution.

"The big problem is the rise of prices due to the weak yen, and what will Kishida do about economic policy? What will he do about the fact that salaries haven't risen for decades. Facing up to this directly is essential. Demands for him to breathe life into the economy will grow. But because of the incident involving Abe, it should be easier to shift away from Abenomics." NOBUYASU ATAGO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ICHIYOSHI SECURITIES, JAPAN

"The focus of this election was blurred, so it's hard to gauge the fallout on economic policy at this stage. Having said that, there will likely be no major change to the broad policy direction. "Abe had great communication skills and was a symbolic figurehead endorsing reflationist-minded policies. His absence will have a huge influence on the ruling party's policies. The power of reflationists likely peaked out.

"The challenge Kishida faces is how to re-define Abenomics, and build on its accomplishments. Kishida will likely shift towards fiscal discipline, while maintaining spending to some degree. He will also give the Bank of Japan a free hand in guiding monetary policy, though much will depend on how the Ministry of Finance, and Kishida's aides close to the ministry, act." COREY WALLACE, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, KANAGAWA UNIVERSITY

"The exit polls are essentially in line with pre-election surveys by the media organisations. They suggest the LDP will do a little better in terms of overall seat numbers than they did in 2016 and 2019, but that has as much to do with opposition party weakness and weakened cooperation between the different parties. "I cannot see any evidence in the exit polling suggesting a surge in support for the LDP that could be put down to Abe's murder. Voter turnout also appears to be in line with expectations. A little bit up on 2019, but not much."

MASAMICHI ADACHI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UBS SECURITIES, JAPAN "We can't say there was absolutely no influence," when asked whether Abe's death could have affected the poll outcome. "But it seems voter turnout didn't rise much.

"We can say Abe's absence has taken some pressure off Kishida to ramp up fiscal stimulus ... Unless the successor to head the faction Abe led within the ruling party is someone very powerful, Japan's fiscal policy could shift slightly hawkish." AIRO HINO, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, WASEDA UNIVERSITY

"Looking at this, it appears the LDP will be able to extend its seats and there will be enough seats won through the various parties to have the two-thirds majority needed to revise the constitution. It's pretty much as expected but the incident two days ago may well have had an impact. "Now I think that with Kishida in power, debate over revising the constitution is likely to speed up."

ROBERT WARD, JAPAN CHAIR, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES "No surprises. Need to wait now to see whether the pro-constitutional reform parties have their two-thirds majority. I still think Kishida will move cautiously, even if they do. Change will require considerable political capital - witness the intensity of the 2015 legal changes initiated by Abe to expand the role of the Self Defense Force.

"On defence, the Liberal Democratic Party manifesto promised defence spending would rise to 2% or more of GDP. Clearly, he (Kishida) now has a green light for this, although questions remain over what they'll be spending the money on, where the money will come from."