ANALYSIS-Takeaways from the New Hampshire presidential primary
According to Edison, 34% of voters who turned out considered themselves moderates or liberals, compared to 29% in 2016, when Trump won the primary handily. Of the 45% percent who called themselves independents, Haley was winning 61% of their vote compared to 35% for Trump.
Donald Trump, the former president, won his second straight nominating contest over challenger Nikki Haley, the only other Republican left in the race, by besting her in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. Haley, who served as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, was attempting to keep the margin close in order to argue she has a viable path forward.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden easily won the Democratic primary, even though he wasn't officially on the ballot. Here are takeaways from the New Hampshire primary:
NO WORRIES It is hard to lose to a candidate who isn’t on the ballot, but Democrat Dean Phillips pulled it off on Tuesday.
For Biden, the result in New Hampshire brings a sigh of relief that his campaign avoided what could have been a mortifying night that would provided talk-show fodder for weeks. He was on track to win the primary by a 50-percentage-point margin after voters wrote his name in on their ballots. The primary offered Phillips a chance to make a name for himself after the national Democratic Party punished New Hampshire for refusing to follow the more diverse South Carolina on the Democratic primary calendar. Since no delegates will be awarded from the New Hampshire primary, Biden did not bother with qualifying for the ballot.
Local Democratic officials, looking to ensure their state did not become a political punchline, mounted a write-in effort on Biden's behalf. Phillips, a Minnesota congressman and the only mainstream Democrat challenging Biden for the nomination, aired a surprising number of TV and radio ads in the run-up to the primary while the Biden campaign kept its distance from the whole thing.
Some independent voters told Reuters this week that they would vote in the Republican primary for Nikki Haley and then decide whether to back Biden in November's general election. The first official Democratic primary in South Carolina will be held Feb. 3.
INDIES TO THE RESCUE? Haley needed a healthy number of independent voters, who are permitted to vote in the primary, to come out for her to offset Trump’s strength with traditional conservatives.
There were early signs that may have been occurring, based on exit polls from Edison Research. According to Edison, 34% of voters who turned out considered themselves moderates or liberals, compared to 29% in 2016, when Trump won the primary handily.
Of the 45% percent who called themselves independents, Haley was winning 61% of their vote compared to 35% for Trump. She was winning 76% of those who call themselves moderates. On the flip side, Trump was dominating with self-declared conservatives, winning them by a 70% to 28% margin.
More than half the voters (51%) believe Biden did not win the 2020 election fairly, according to the poll. Trump, who has perpetuated that false claim since he lost to Biden, was getting the vast majority of those voters at 88%. More than half the voters (52%) also said they believed Trump would be fit for the presidency even if convicted of a crime, the poll said.
Conversely, 44% said he would be unfit, and Haley was earning 84% of those voters. That suggests Trump's legal problems could hamper him in a general-election matchup against Biden. GOOD TIMES, BAD TIMES
The exit polls showed that the economy continues to be the top concern of voters, with Haley showing surprising strength on the issue. Of the 36% who said the economy was their top priority, Trump had a slight edge at 52% to 46%, according to Edison. Overall, 73% of voters said the economy was “not so good or poor.”
Those who thought things are in dire straits were more likely to vote for Trump, while voters who believed the economy is in relatively good shape went for Haley. That makes some sense, given Haley’s supporters tend to be more moderate, educated and affluent. Among voters who said they earned $100,000 or more annually, Haley was beating Trump 53% to 44%.
Trump got 77% of the voters who cited immigration as their top concern. Haley was doing well with voters who prioritized foreign policy – a focus for her on the trail given her background at the United Nations, thumping Trump 66% to 33%.
And although abortion was not a leading issue for many voters in New Hampshire, Haley, who has often called for a less confrontational approach on the matter, was outpacing Trump 65% to 26%. Among New Hampshire voters who listed temperament as the top quality they were looking for in a candidate, Haley was crushing Trump 86% to 11%.
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