Lula Dominates in Brazilian Election Polls as Flavio Gains Momentum

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over right-wing challengers Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas. Polls suggest Lula would prevail in both first-round and run-off scenarios. Market reactions follow fluctuating political endorsements and electoral forecasts.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead in pre-election polls, holding a significant advantage over main right-wing challengers. According to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll conducted in January, Lula stands at 48% support, overshadowing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's 28% and Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas' 11%.

If Tarcisio de Freitas were not to participate in the race, Lula's backing would rise slightly to 49%, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would gain 35% of the vote. Lula remains favored in hypothetical run-off scenarios, defeating both challengers with 49% to 45% margins.

Endorsements and political maneuvers impact market sentiments, with former President Jair Bolsonaro's support for his son Flavio previously causing fluctuations in Brazil's currency and equities. The poll surveyed over 5,400 individuals and maintains a 1-point margin of error.