NYAY a non-issue or BJP committed mistake?

Congress targeting beneficiaries of NDA government's social schemes.

In the political circle, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is well known for his surprising moves. However, the lack of a scheme to counter Congress' NYAY in BJP's Sankalp Patra released on Monday is surprising and will continue to surprise the political analysists even if the result of ensuing general election 2019 is settled on either side.

Ever since Congress president Rahul Gandhi pitched for NYAY, the saffron party has been highly critical to the scheme, particularly on its financial viability. The Congress party meticulously fielded its financial experts with a roadmap for execution besides establishing it a rational idea in comparison to Modi's promise of Rs. 15 lakhs coming in the bank account of every account holder, a political promise he had apparently made in 2014. It's not sure on how many voters were influenced by the promise of 15 lakh rupees but opposition always put it as one of the biggest promises behind BJP's victory in 2014. Modi, after becoming the Prime Minister, never clarified his stand on this promise, which probably led to all-around communication dilemma throughout his tenure.

This communication confusion was on to the extent that BJP' national president Amit Shah termed it as 'jumla' while former BJP president and Union Cabinet Minister Nitin Gadkari called it among some promises that are made during elections but not fulfilled. It is from that communication dilemma Congress has derived its present communication strategy to push NYAY as a rational and realistic promise. This is due to this positioning a section of voters, particularly the potential beneficiaries, have started believing in Congress's scheme.

Although there is no credible data of 20% poor families according to a rough estimate, the scheme would roughly benefit around 25 crores poorest of the poor in the country. This figure covers almost the same population NDA government extended free benefits through various schemes like free LPG cylinders, electricity connection, health benefits, and free houses. It would be interesting to see whether those beneficiaries will be loyal to Modi or switch sides to Rahul Gandhi in search of direct cash in their pockets.

The BJP has already lost the philosophical ground of not promising free-ships to the voters of this section but not coming with any concrete idea to counter NYAY may be counter-productive.

It was not for the first time; Team Modi had been put in such a situation. Earlier, the Congress had pressurised the Modi government to waive off farmers' bank debts as it had done in 2009 but BJP took a political position by putting the ball in the court of states. The BJP's pension schemes for small traders and farmers are no match to the Congress' Rs. 72,000 per year scheme. NYAY looks non-realistic in first glance but if compared with the promise of Rs. 15 lakhs in bank accounts and taking clues from few other countries implementing cash transfer schemes successfully such as South Africa, is convincingly doable.

However, this election has a lot on stake. If the election is settled in favour of Modi, the BJP would project as voters' rejection of cash offers. However, the party is not completely averse to direct cash transfer as it has offered a similar scheme of Rs. 6,000 per annum to farmers. Will the future elections be contested on the basis of increments?