Researchers leveraging computer models for COVID-19 drug trials

As the COVID-19 virus continues to undergo mutation, new waves of infection are expected to occur, with the researchers claiming that the computer model might also work for current and future variants of concern.

A team of researchers at the University of Waterloo are utilizing mathematical models and computer simulations that allow for virtual trials of COVID-19 drugs and vaccines, opening the possibility of pre-assessment for drug and vaccine efficacy against the deadly virus.

The team, comprising Anita Layton, professor of applied mathematics and Canada 150 Research Chair in mathematical biology and medicine, and Mehrshad Sadria, an applied mathematics PhD student, uses "in silico" experiments - trials situated in the silicon of computer chips - to replicate how the human immune system deals with the COVID-19 virus.

"It's not that in-silico trials should replace clinical trials. Clinical trials are expensive and can cost human lives. Using models helps narrow the drug candidates to the ones that are best for safety and efficacy," Prof. Layton noted.

The researchers successfully captured the results of different treatments that were used on COVID-19 patients in clinical trials. Their results are remarkably consistent with live data on COVID infections and treatments.

For instance, both the simulated model and the live trial of Remdesivir showed the drug to be biologically effective but clinically questionable, unless administered shortly after viral infection.

As the COVID-19 virus continues to undergo mutation, new waves of infection are expected to occur, with the researchers claiming that the computer model might also work for current and future variants of concern.

As we learn more about different variants of concern, we can change the model's structure or parameters to simulate the interaction between the immune system and the variants. And we can then predict if we should apply the same treatments or even how the vaccines might work as well.

Sadria

The study titled "Modeling within-Host SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics and Potential Treatments" was recently published in the journal Viruses. Layton and Sadria are part of a new team, led by researchers at the University Health Network (UHN), which will conduct experimental studies and modelling simulations to understand the spread of COVID variants in Canada.

(With inputs from EureAlert)