Southwest Monsoon Sets in Over Kerala, Advances into Northeast India

The Southwest Monsoon has officially set in over Kerala as of today, May 30, 2024, marking its onset with significant advancement into most parts of northeast India, including Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, and parts of Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam.

Monsoon Progress

The monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of the southwest Arabian Sea, parts of the west-central Arabian Sea, most of the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, Mahe, parts of south Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area. It has also moved into more parts of the northeast Bay of Bengal and most of northeast India, including entire Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, and most of Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon now passes through coordinates and locations that include 13°N/60°E, 12°N/65°E, 11°N/70°E, Amini, Kannur, Coimbatore, Kanyakumari, 8.5°N/80°E, 13°N/84°E, 16°N/87°E, 20°N/91°E, Agartala, Dhubri, and 27°N/89.5°E.

Forecast for Monsoon Advancement

Conditions are favorable for the further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon into additional parts of the central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of the south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, Kerala, parts of Karnataka, more parts of Tamil Nadu, the southwest and central Bay of Bengal, the remaining parts of northeast Bay of Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim over the next 2-3 days.

Cyclonic Activity and Rainfall

A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam and neighboring areas, combined with strong southwesterly and southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal, is expected to result in:

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim over the next seven days.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim over the next five days, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Meghalaya today.

Weather Patterns in Other Regions

A cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh and a trough running to west Bangladesh are likely to cause isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) in Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh for the next five days, and in Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Maharashtra from June 1-3.

A shear zone along latitude 8°N over south peninsular India, with cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea off south Kerala, will lead to fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) in Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and Karnataka for the next seven days. Similar conditions are expected in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Rayalaseema.

Heat Wave Conditions

Severe heat wave conditions persisted across parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, East Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh. The highest recorded temperature was 48.8°C in Rohtak, Haryana.

Temperature Forecast

A gradual decrease in maximum temperatures by 2-4°C is expected over northwest and central India in the next five days.

No significant changes are anticipated in maximum temperatures over East India for the next two days, followed by a gradual decrease of 2-3°C.

A rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C is likely in Maharashtra and south peninsular India over the next three days, with no significant changes thereafter.

The weather pattern and rainfall distribution are set to bring much-needed respite to various regions, while also marking a critical period for agricultural activities across the country.