Monsoon Watch: Southwest Monsoon Poised for Onset in India

The India Meteorological Department reports favorable conditions for the southwest monsoon's onset over the south Bay of Bengal and surrounding areas. The monsoon may hit Andaman and Nicobar around May 20 and Kerala by June 1, with expected below-normal rainfall due to emerging El Nino conditions.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has observed favorable conditions for the southwest monsoon's onset over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands toward the end of this week. The announcement was made on Tuesday.

A low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal was reported to lay over the same region as of 8:30 am on May 12, 2026, with a cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 km above mean sea level. The IMD forecasts that this will become more marked in the next 48 hours.

Typically, the monsoon impacts Andaman and Nicobar around May 20 and eventually moves west toward mainland India, hitting Kerala by June 1. However, India is expected to experience below-normal rainfall this monsoon season due to emerging El Nino conditions, receiving 80 cm compared to the long-term average of 87 cm.