India Predicts Below Average Monsoon Rainfall This Year

The India Meteorological Department forecasts the southwest monsoon will bring 90% of the average rainfall, with variations across regions. While Northeast India expects normal rainfall, other areas might experience below-normal levels, potentially indicating a deficient monsoon.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates that this year's southwest monsoon will bring about 90% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, with a standard error of 4%. Typically, the LPA over the entire nation measures 87 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020.

According to the IMD's forecast, while Northeast India might see usual rainfall, other regions may encounter below-normal levels, especially the country's rainfed agriculture zones, where rainfall is expected to be below 94% of the LPA. If the season's rainfall falls below 90% of the LPA, it is classified as 'deficient.'

In a recent statement, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, indicated that the monsoon's arrival in Kerala is anticipated within the next week, generally occurring around June 1, signaling the monsoon's onset across the country. Weather conditions could be influenced by El Nino, which is in transition and likely to strengthen by September, potentially affecting rainfall.

Additionally, June might experience above-normal temperatures across much of India, with an increase in heatwave days expected in states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Bihar, while Rajasthan and Jharkhand may have fewer heatwave occurrences.