El Niño’s Next Phase Could Redraw Rainfall, Heat and Drought Risk Into 2027

El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event before peaking toward the end of 2026, according to the World Meteorological Organization. With an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent that the event will persist through February 2027, attention is shifting from forecasting the phenomenon itself to preparing for its uneven but potentially severe impacts on rainfall, heat, drought and flooding.

El Niño is now firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event before peaking toward the end of 2026, pushing governments and climate-sensitive sectors into a critical preparedness window. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that there is an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent that the event will persist through February 2027.

The focus has shifted from whether El Niño will endure to how strongly it will alter rainfall, temperatures and the risk of extreme weather across different parts of the world. The danger lies not in one uniform global outcome, but in a patchwork of drought, flooding and heat that could unfold very differently from place to place.

The Warning Is unusually Clear, the Impacts Will Not Be

El Niño is one of the strongest naturally occurring forces shaping the global climate system. Driven by unusually warm conditions across the tropical Pacific, it can alter atmospheric circulation and shift rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world.

The current event is being fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months. WMO forecasts point to very strong intensity before a likely peak toward the end of the year, with climate effects continuing well into 2027. However, a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean every country will experience more severe disruption. The effects vary by geography and season, while conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans can modify how El Niño influences local weather.

Global confidence can coexist with local uncertainty. Meteorologists can be highly certain that El Niño will persist while still facing a much more complicated task in determining exactly where rainfall will fail, where floods will intensify and where heat risks will become most acute.

A Single Climate Event Can Create Opposite Emergencies

The most difficult feature of El Niño is its ability to produce contrasting hazards at the same time. Some regions may face prolonged dry conditions and pressure on water supplies, while others experience excessive rainfall, flooding and infrastructure damage. Extreme heat adds another layer of risk. Changes in temperature patterns can affect public health, energy demand and water systems, while altered rainfall can disrupt agriculture and increase pressure on livelihoods dependent on predictable seasonal cycles.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has warned that droughts and floods are already causing disruption and that impacts are expected to increase as the event intensifies. Her warning reflects the operational reality that El Niño is not simply a weather story but a cross-sector risk affecting agriculture, health, energy and water management.

The broad exposure makes preparation more complicated. Governments cannot respond to "El Niño" as a single hazard; they must prepare for the specific forms it may take in their own regions, often while dealing with uncertainty over timing, location and severity.

The Real Challenge Is Turning Forecasts Into Decisions

WMO has described the current situation as requiring exceptional preparation and response, including a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. These agencies sit at the frontline of translating global climate signals into forecasts that governments, communities and industries can use.

The value of such forecasting lies in the lead time it creates. If risks can be identified months in advance, authorities have an opportunity to strengthen early-warning systems, review contingency plans and prepare sectors that are particularly exposed to rainfall and temperature shocks.

However, forecast confidence alone does not guarantee effective action. A nearly certain global outlook still has to be converted into local information detailed enough to guide decisions about water allocation, crop planning, health preparedness, energy management and disaster response.

The Biggest Risk May Be Waiting for Certainty That Will Never Come

The current El Niño presents policymakers with a familiar climate dilemma: act early on the basis of strong but imperfect forecasts, or wait for greater local certainty and risk losing valuable preparation time. The stronger the event becomes, the higher the potential cost of delay.

Additionally, overgeneralizing the forecast carries its own risks. A very strong El Niño does not guarantee the same outcome everywhere, and resources could be poorly targeted if global warnings are translated too mechanically into national action.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has placed the event within the wider context of rising temperatures and exceptionally warm seas, warning that the world is moving into increasingly dangerous conditions for extreme weather. His comments underline the concern that El Niño is unfolding against an already unusually warm global backdrop.

The coming months will be a test of climate preparedness as much as climate prediction. The persistence of El Niño through February 2027 appears highly likely, but the true measure of the event will be how well countries anticipate its local consequences and protect vulnerable communities and sectors before those risks materialize.

The most important signals to watch now will be regional rainfall and temperature outlooks, drought and flood warnings, and national preparedness measures as the event approaches its expected year-end peak. The science has become unusually clear about persistence; the uncertainty now lies in how governments convert that warning into action.

El Niño's significance in 2026 and 2027 will not ultimately be defined by the label attached to its strength, but by whether early warnings become early decisions, and whether those decisions arrive before extreme weather does.