Trusted Forecasts Take Centre Stage: WMO Pushes for Stronger Life-Saving Services

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed that trusted, authoritative forecasts and warnings are more important than ever.

A weather warning matters most when someone can use it to make a decision: a farmer protecting a crop, a pilot changing course or a community preparing for floodwater. Making those decisions easier is at the heart of a meeting of the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Weather, Climate, Hydrological, Marine and Related Environmental Services and Applications, known as SERCOM.

The commission is working to strengthen services used in agriculture, aviation, disaster risk reduction, health, renewable energy, shipping and water management. Its job is to connect observations, research, prediction systems and technical infrastructure with the everyday choices made by governments, businesses, communities and individuals.

Extreme weather puts trusted forecasts under pressure

The meeting comes during a strengthening El Niño, which is influencing temperatures and rainfall and adding to the risks associated with record-breaking heat, catastrophic floods, prolonged droughts, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, wildfires, dense haze and marine heatwaves.

SERCOM President Ian Lisk described a world where extreme weather and climate events feature in the news every day, with El Niño becoming a regular subject of conversation among government officials, resilience specialists, finance and health professionals, and the public.

For Lisk, responding to the event involves more than planning for its immediate effects. It also offers an opportunity to explain how the climate affects people today and what future conditions could mean for their homes, health and livelihoods.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed that trusted, authoritative forecasts and warnings are more important than ever. She called on SERCOM to turn scientific and technical expertise into services that protect lives, livelihoods and development, with urgency and a clear sense of shared purpose.

More forecasts make clear standards essential

Artificial intelligence and rapid technological change are transforming weather prediction and increasing the number of forecasts available. That makes the question of trust harder to ignore: people need to know whether information is reliable, how it has been checked and who is responsible for issuing it.

Saulo said forecasts must meet recognised standards, be verified against observations, undergo quality checks and remain traceable to their sources. An accountable, authoritative voice is especially important when a warning requires people to act. Setting those standards, verification practices and professional competencies is a central part of SERCOM's work.

Delegates will consider amendments to WMO Technical Regulations and competency frameworks, new requirements for the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System, or WIPPS, and a new long-term plan for aeronautical meteorology. The agenda also covers the cataloguing of hazardous events, the Flood Forecasting Framework and methods for monitoring global temperature. These technical decisions help establish a dependable foundation for services that people may rely on during dangerous conditions.

Early warnings must reach people and lead to action

A one-day technical conference will examine how the Early Warnings for All initiative can deliver services sustainably, everywhere and for everyone. As the initiative enters its fifth year, Saulo said attention has shifted from commitments to measurable results: which communities are protected, whether people act on warnings, and how many lives and livelihoods are saved. She set out three priorities for SERCOM.

The first is a focused, realistic work programme for 2026–2027, supported by an efficient organisation that reflects WMO Members' priorities, available resources and a fast-changing operational environment.

The second is a coherent framework for early warning services, bringing together sound regulations, practical guidance, capacity development and sustained implementation. A warning system needs more than a forecast; it needs the people, skills and support that allow the information to reach a community and prompt a useful response.

The third is digital transformation across marine, aviation and other weather- and climate-sensitive services. Advances in technology and artificial intelligence need to produce information that arrives sooner, reaches more people and gives them a clearer basis for action. For the people making decisions under an approaching storm or a worsening drought, the value of those changes will be measured in the time and confidence they gain to prepare.