Strong El Niño Shapes South Asia’s Winter Outlook With Uneven Rain and Warmer Days

Northwestern South Asia, along with parts of the east and south, including the island nations, is likely to receive normal or above-normal rainfall during October–December.

For farmers counting on the October–December rains, South Asia's latest seasonal forecast offers a mixed picture: some areas are likely to receive normal or above-normal rainfall, and others could finish the season with less rain than usual. Very strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific are influencing an outlook that also points to normal or above-normal daytime and nighttime temperatures across much of the region.

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) forecast covers Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Its findings carry particular importance for communities that depend on these months for a substantial share of their rainfall, with agricultural operations closely tied to the season's conditions.

Rainfall prospects change across the region

Northwestern South Asia, along with parts of the east and south, including the island nations, is likely to receive normal or above-normal rainfall during October–December. Most central and southern peninsular areas, as well as some eastern locations, face a greater likelihood of below-normal rainfall.

These differences matter because a broad regional forecast does not describe the same conditions everywhere within it. Parts of southern South Asia fall into the wetter category, and much of the southern peninsula falls into the drier category, making location an important part of interpreting the outlook.

Southern India, Sri Lanka and Maldives usually receive considerable rainfall during these months, supporting agricultural activity through a season when dependable water supplies matter. Afghanistan also receives a sizable share of its annual precipitation during this period.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain normal or above normal across most of the nine-country region, pointing to a season with limited prospects for cooler-than-usual conditions on a broad scale.

Pacific warmth helps shape the winter forecast

Very strong El Niño conditions are already present over the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial ocean are above average. Several climate models indicate an increased likelihood that these conditions will persist through the October–December season.

The Indian Ocean presents another part of the climate picture, with above-average sea surface temperatures across most of the basin and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Forecasts suggest that the dipole is likely to remain neutral during the season.

El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole are large-scale climate influences that help shape rainfall and temperature patterns across South Asia. The outlook brings these ocean conditions into the assessment of the coming season, offering a regional picture of where wetter, drier or warmer conditions are more likely.

Nine countries contribute to a shared outlook

The forecast was developed through a consensus process involving experts from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of all nine countries, bringing national knowledge into a shared assessment of the season.

Contributors also included WMO, the WMO Regional Climate Centre Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Climate Prediction Center.

SASCOF produces this winter outlook to meet demand for seasonal information about rains that support agriculture and other activities across the region. The forecast describes likely conditions over three months; it does not promise a particular amount of rain on any given day.