Early Warning Systems Cut Disaster Deaths; UN Calls for Stronger Global Protection

The report arrives as a potentially exceptionally strong El Niño event threatens to intensify extreme weather across different parts of the world, placing additional pressure on already vulnerable communities.

More countries than ever are developing early warning systems to protect people from floods, storms, droughts and other natural hazards, marking an important improvement in global disaster preparedness. A new United Nations report reveals that 70% of countries now report having some multi-hazard early warning capability, showing how governments are investing in forecasting technologies and emergency communication systems. Millions of people remain exposed to dangerous weather conditions, particularly in vulnerable countries where limited resources, weak infrastructure and inadequate warning networks make disaster preparation more difficult.

The findings come from the Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2026, a report jointly published by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The publication is an official United Nations assessment rather than a research paper published in an academic journal, presenting updated information about disaster warning capabilities, preparedness and international progress. It highlights the growing importance of connecting scientific forecasts with practical action that allows communities to prepare before extreme weather threatens lives and livelihoods.

The report arrives as a potentially exceptionally strong El Niño event threatens to intensify extreme weather across different parts of the world, placing additional pressure on already vulnerable communities. Scientists warn that changing weather patterns could increase the frequency and severity of damaging conditions, making accurate predictions and timely public warnings increasingly important for reducing disaster losses. The findings also demonstrate that countries with well-developed warning systems experience substantially fewer disaster-related deaths and affected people, providing strong evidence of the value of investing in preparedness.

Global Early Warning Coverage Expands to 136 Countries

The number of countries reporting some level of multi-hazard early warning capability has increased to 136, representing 17 additional countries compared with March 2025. This expansion brings reported global coverage to 70% of countries, marking a 143% increase in the number of countries reporting such capabilities since monitoring began in 2015. The growth reflects wider recognition that reliable forecasting, coordinated emergency planning and public communication are essential for protecting populations from increasingly unpredictable natural hazards.

The report identifies a strong relationship between comprehensive early warning capabilities and lower disaster impacts, demonstrating the potential benefits of well-organised preparedness systems. Countries with substantial or comprehensive warning systems recorded disaster-related mortality 6.1 times lower than countries with limited or moderate capabilities, alongside 3.2 times fewer people affected by disasters. These findings show a strong association between advanced warning systems and reduced harm, reinforcing the importance of strengthening observation networks, emergency communication and community readiness.

Major inequalities remain in access to effective disaster protection, particularly among countries facing the greatest climate-related risks and financial constraints. Small Island Developing States have the lowest reported early warning coverage, and Least Developed Countries continue to record the lowest overall scores for system comprehensiveness despite achieving the greatest improvement from their initial levels. UNDRR chief Kamal Kishore emphasised that the international community must prioritise warning systems and early action in vulnerable countries if it wants to reduce disaster losses and protect communities.

Powerful El Niño Increases the Urgency of Disaster Preparedness

The strengthening El Niño event has raised concerns among climate scientists because its intensity could exceed previously observed levels and create serious weather disruptions across multiple regions. WMO's latest seasonal climate outlook indicates that the current event may become exceptionally powerful, with effects already emerging and further extreme weather expected as conditions intensify. These developments increase the need for governments to use seasonal forecasts, disaster risk assessments and local preparedness plans to reduce potential damage before dangerous weather develops.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño could reach an intensity beyond existing monitoring records, highlighting the serious challenges facing meteorological services and emergency authorities. She stressed that the phenomenon itself cannot be prevented, but timely forecasts and effective preparedness can reduce many of its most damaging consequences for people and communities. Early warning systems provide an opportunity to protect vulnerable populations through evacuation planning, public communication, emergency supplies and coordinated responses before severe conditions become humanitarian emergencies.

The report was released alongside a high-level event in Antalya, Türkiye, titled Early Warnings for All: Delivering our Promise to Protect Everyone, attended by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The gathering highlighted international efforts to expand disaster warning coverage and ensure that scientific information reaches communities in ways that support immediate protective action. Governments and international organisations were encouraged to strengthen the connection between weather observations, reliable forecasts, public alerts and local emergency preparedness.

Early Action Programmes Help Protect Millions Before Disasters Strike

An effective warning system must do more than predict dangerous weather because communities also need the knowledge, resources and support required to respond before a disaster occurs. The report highlights the growing use of anticipatory action frameworks, which help governments and humanitarian organisations prepare protective measures using forecasts and agreed emergency plans. These approaches can support earlier evacuations, the distribution of essential supplies and the release of emergency funding before hazards cause widespread damage.

During 2025, the number of active anticipatory action frameworks increased by approximately 70%, rising from 154 to 262 across 75 countries. Authorities and humanitarian organisations recorded 146 anticipatory action activations in 54 countries, directly reaching 9.6 million people through measures designed to reduce disaster impacts. These interventions were supported by US$119.9 million in pre-arranged financing, demonstrating how funding agreed before emergencies can help organisations respond quickly when forecasts indicate serious risks.

The findings emphasise that early action depends on cooperation among government agencies, scientists, humanitarian organisations and local communities, particularly in areas where disaster risks are high. Clear responsibilities, accessible warning messages and adequate financing help translate technical forecasts into decisions that protect families, businesses and essential services. Strengthening these arrangements will become increasingly important as El Niño develops and climate-related hazards place additional pressure on communities with limited resources.

Africa Makes Major Gains as Global Warning Technology Improves

Progress in early warning coverage is becoming more widespread, with every global region now reporting systems in at least 50% of its countries. Africa recorded the largest annual improvement in the number of countries reporting early warning capabilities, adding 11 countries and increasing regional coverage to 77%. The continent's average comprehensiveness score has reached a level comparable to the Americas and the Caribbean, reflecting improvements in regional disaster preparedness and warning infrastructure.

Europe and Central Asia continue to report the highest level of early warning system comprehensiveness, demonstrating the benefits of established monitoring networks and coordinated emergency management. The Arab States record the lowest average comprehensiveness, revealing the need for continued investment in forecasting infrastructure, institutional coordination and effective public warning services. Differences between regions show why international support must focus on improving the quality and effectiveness of systems rather than simply increasing the number of countries reporting basic capabilities.

Weather observation networks are improving as more countries share meteorological data through internationally recognised systems that support accurate forecasts and timely warnings. The proportion of WMO Members sharing observations from at least one station meeting Global Basic Observing Network requirements increased from 37% in 2023 to 52% in 2025, strengthening the information available to weather forecasting services. Public warning technology is expanding through mobile communication networks, with 38 countries operating Cell Broadcast warning systems by June 2026 and another 17 countries in the final stages of development.

The report demonstrates that international investment in early warning systems is delivering measurable progress, giving more governments the ability to prepare for floods, storms, droughts and other dangerous events. Stronger observation networks, faster public alerts, reliable emergency financing and community-level preparedness can help transform scientific predictions into practical measures that reduce deaths and protect livelihoods. Closing the remaining gaps in vulnerable countries will be essential to fulfilling the global commitment to provide effective early warnings for everyone and building communities that are better prepared for future disasters.