Why AI is failing to deliver e-commerce growth across the EU

AI improves e-commerce outcomes only when people actively use digital tools, trust online systems, and engage consistently in online purchasing. AI adoption by firms has limited economic impact unless it is matched by frequent internet access and sustained consumer participation in digital markets.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely promoted as a growth engine for Europe’s digital economy, but new research suggests that technology alone does not translate into stronger online sales. Instead, AI delivers economic value only when it is embedded in everyday digital behavior and supported by consumer readiness, infrastructure, and institutional maturity. 

These are the findings of the study “Unraveling the Connection Between AI Adoption and E-Commerce Performance in the European Union: A Cross-Country Study,” published in the journal Systems. The research provides a data-driven assessment of how AI adoption in marketing and sales interacts with digital behavior and commercial outcomes across all 27 EU member states. The study moves beyond anecdotal claims about AI and instead maps the real mechanisms through which AI influences online commerce. 

AI works through digital behavior, not in isolation

AI improves e-commerce outcomes only when people actively use digital tools, trust online systems, and engage consistently in online purchasing. AI adoption by firms has limited economic impact unless it is matched by frequent internet access and sustained consumer participation in digital markets.

The study examines AI use in marketing and sales alongside key indicators of digital behavior, including daily internet use and recent online purchases. These behavioral factors are shown to play a decisive mediating role. While AI adoption is associated with improved digital engagement, it does not automatically lead to higher online revenues. Instead, digital behavior acts as the channel through which AI’s potential is converted into measurable economic performance.

This finding reshapes how AI’s role in commerce should be understood. Rather than acting as a standalone driver of growth, AI functions as enabling infrastructure. It supports personalization, automation, and predictive analytics, but its economic payoff depends on whether consumers are digitally active, comfortable with online transactions, and willing to engage repeatedly.

The research identifies a two-stage process. In the first stage, AI helps firms enter online markets by reducing operational barriers and supporting the launch of digital sales channels. In the second stage, long-term performance growth depends on whether digital engagement stabilizes and deepens. Without this behavioral foundation, AI investments struggle to generate sustained revenue gains.

This distinction explains why some firms and countries see limited returns from AI adoption despite significant investment. Technology alone does not create value; it must be absorbed into daily digital practices. Where internet use is sporadic, trust is low, or purchasing behavior is inconsistent, AI’s impact remains constrained.

Europe’s digital divide shapes AI returns

The study also reveals stark regional differences in how AI adoption translates into e-commerce performance across the European Union. These disparities reflect varying levels of digital maturity, infrastructure quality, economic capacity, and cultural readiness.

Northern and Western European countries emerge as clear leaders. These economies combine high levels of AI adoption with frequent internet use and strong online purchasing habits. As a result, they demonstrate both widespread participation in e-commerce and higher proportions of enterprise revenue generated online. Their digital ecosystems are characterized by stable infrastructure, advanced skills, and institutional support for innovation.

On the other hand, many Southern and Eastern European countries are still navigating earlier stages of digital transformation. While internet access has expanded significantly and online purchasing is increasing, these behaviors have not yet translated into strong commercial outcomes at scale. AI adoption in these regions remains lower, and structural barriers such as uneven infrastructure, limited digital skills, and trust concerns continue to limit performance.

The research shows that Europe’s digital economy is not converging uniformly. Instead, countries cluster into distinct groups based on how technology adoption, digital behavior, and economic performance interact. Some nations exhibit high digital engagement but weaker commercial returns, suggesting that behavioral readiness alone is insufficient without complementary investments and organizational capabilities. Others demonstrate strong AI adoption but moderate revenue impact, highlighting the limits of technology when consumer engagement lags.

These patterns underline a critical policy implication. Efforts to promote AI across Europe cannot rely on one-size-fits-all strategies. Countries at different stages of digital maturity require tailored approaches that address behavioral, economic, and institutional conditions alongside technological deployment.

Why AI strategy must focus on people, not just technology

The study findings challenge the assumption that AI investment automatically delivers competitiveness and growth. Instead, AI’s economic value depends on how deeply it is integrated into human behavior and organizational routines.

Businesses should not treat AI as a plug-and-play solution. Firms seeking stronger e-commerce performance must pair AI deployment with strategies that enhance user experience, build trust, and encourage repeated digital interaction. Personalization, intuitive design, transparency, and data protection are not secondary concerns but central drivers of AI effectiveness.

The research also suggests that companies focused solely on automation or cost reduction may miss AI’s broader value. While AI can facilitate market entry by simplifying operations, long-term success depends on cultivating digital loyalty and sustained engagement. This requires investment in skills, customer relationships, and organizational culture, not just algorithms.

For policymakers, the study reinforces the need for integrated digital strategies. Promoting AI adoption without addressing digital literacy, infrastructure gaps, and consumer trust risks widening existing inequalities. Regions with weaker digital ecosystems may adopt AI tools but fail to convert them into economic gains, reinforcing rather than reducing regional disparities.