CagriSema Trial Results Raise Concerns for Novo Nordisk in Obesity Market

Novo Nordisk's latest trial results for CagriSema, their obesity drug candidate, show it as a successor to their blockbuster Wegovy, but not superior to Eli Lilly's Mounjaro. This has led to skepticism about its market potential, with sales projections being revised downward. Novo plans regulatory submission by early 2026.

On Monday, Novo Nordisk unveiled data from its second late-stage trial of obesity drug candidate CagriSema, causing shares to plummet and raising concerns over competitor Eli Lilly gaining an upper hand in the weight-loss drug market.

The trial, REDEFINE 2, showed CagriSema offering better weight loss results than Novo's existing Wegovy, yet failed to surpass Lilly's Mounjaro. Investor Markus Manns noted that market expectations for CagriSema were set too high, causing stock volatility.

With 13.7% weight loss after 68 weeks, below the desired 15% mark, analysts scaled down sales projections to $7.25 billion from an optimistic $13 billion. Despite shareholder concerns, Novo plans to seek regulatory approval for CagriSema by the first quarter of 2026.