Icra Maintains India's GDP Forecast Amid Global Uncertainty

Icra has retained India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025-26 at 6.2%, contingent on consistent monsoon rains and stable crude oil prices. Despite a projected 6.5% growth by the Reserve Bank, Icra warned of geopolitical tensions, financial volatility, and uncertain trade policies affecting growth prospects.

Rating agency Icra has maintained its GDP growth forecast for India at 6.2% for the 2025-26 fiscal year, citing expectations of favorable monsoons and crude oil prices holding at around USD 70 per barrel.

However, the agency expressed concerns that geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatility in financial markets, and unpredictable trade policies could threaten this growth estimate.

The Reserve Bank has a slightly higher projection of 6.5% GDP growth. The report notes mixed economic activity so far in FY2026, with global risks potentially disrupting domestic growth.

(With inputs from agencies.)