India's Solar Industry Faces Transformation with Domestic Mandate

India's solar sector is undergoing a shift as the ALMM List-II requires domestically made solar cells. With this change, an oligopolistic market is expected to emerge. The industry's module capacity is at 210GW, while solar cell capacity stands at 30GW, projected to reach 60-70GW by FY28.

The Indian solar industry is anticipated to witness significant structural changes as the mandatory use of domestically manufactured solar cells, under the ALMM List-II, becomes operational. This mandate is poised to steer the market towards an oligopoly, according to a report by JM Financial.

India boasts over 120 solar manufacturers, with a combined module capacity exceeding 210GW, 173GW of which falls under ALMM List I. These manufacturers are categorized into large integrated players, technological domestic frontrunners, and policy-dependent assemblers who rely heavily on import duties and ALMM protection.

Additionally, solar cell manufacturing in India currently trails at a 30GW capacity across 13 listed players but is anticipated to reach 60-70GW by FY28. Extensions to domestic mandates for ingots and wafers in ALMM List-III are underway, with implementation expected by June 2028.