Global rate pressures, inflation risks may drive 50 bps more RBI hikes by February 2027: Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points by February 2027, citing rising inflationary pressures and tighter global financial conditions.

Emkay Global Financial Services expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points by February 2027, citing rising inflationary pressures and tighter global financial conditions. In its analysis of the minutes of the RBI's October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Emkay forecast a 25-basis-point hike each in December 2026 and February 2027. This would take the total rate increase in the current cycle to 75 basis points.

The report said the MPC minutes supported further gradual rate hikes but indicated that a significant extension of the tightening cycle remained unlikely without stronger evidence of persistent inflation. Emkay identified the spread of inflation across goods and services as a key concern. The share of items in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket recording inflation above 4 per cent rose from 20 per cent in March 2026 to 37 per cent in August and 46 per cent in September, according to the report.

However, the report said there was limited evidence that these pressures had become firmly embedded in companies' pricing decisions. Some MPC members also maintained that inflation was largely driven by supply-side factors. Global interest rates could also influence the RBI's decisions. Emkay said higher rates in major economies could increase the need for India to maintain an adequate interest-rate differential to attract foreign debt inflows.

At its October meeting, the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent. While the decision was unanimous, the minutes showed differences among MPC members over the policy stance, with four of the six members supporting a shift towards calibrated tightening. Meanwhile, India's economic growth remained strong. GDP grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY2026-27, prompting the RBI to raise its full-year growth forecast to 7.1 per cent, the report said.

Emkay said the RBI's next policy moves would depend on whether inflationary pressures spread further and persist, along with changes in global interest rates and capital flows. Its forecast represents the firm's assessment and does not indicate a confirmed decision by the central bank. (ANI)