FOREX-Yen rallies again as market selloff extends on recession fearsReuters | Updated: 15-08-2019 16:13 IST | Created: 15-08-2019 16:04 IST
The yen strengthened again on Thursday as signals from the bond market that the U.S. economy could be headed for a recession unnerved investors.
Foreign exchange markets have remained relatively calm despite big moves in bond markets this week, where investors have piled into government debt in anticipation of a global growth slowdown. But the safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened as investors looked for safety.
After initially falling in early trading on Thursday, the currency was back in demand as European stock markets fell and investors flooded into safer assets. The latest turbulence in financial markets was triggered by an inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve for the first time in 12 years.
The closely watched inversion, where two-year yields trade higher than 10-year yields, has historically preceded previous economic recessions. "Market-related headlines this morning have been dominated by yield curve inversion and the recessionary implications that follow," Rabobank said in a note to clients.
Sentiment was already fragile after economic data from China and Germany earlier in the week revealed the extent of the damage the China-U.S. trade dispute is causing to the world economy. The yen, down 0.3% at the start of the London trading session, was last up 0.1% at 105.85.
On Wednesday, the yen rallied 0.8% versus the greenback, its biggest daily gain in two weeks. The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.1% to 97.853, unchanged on the day.
The euro edged higher against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.1155. NORWAY FALLS
Elsewhere, Norway's crown weakened after its central bank, the Norges bank, said its policy outlook was now more uncertain, raising doubts about whether it would raise rates later in 2019. The central bank has been an outlier with its plans to hike rates while most policymakers turn more dovish in the face of worsening global growth.
"We regard this as a signal that Norges Bank wants to gain flexibility in order to evaluate important incoming domestic data and global developments before deciding on the next possible rate hike," said SEB strategist Erica Blomgren Dalstø. The crown was last down 0.2% against the euro at 10.022 crowns.
The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.5% to $0.6791 after data showed the Australian economy added a forecast-busting 41,100 new jobs in July. However, reflecting the rising global economic risks, futures markets still imply an 84% chance of a quarter point rate cut to 0.75% in October, with November seen better than 100%.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle also highlighted the risks from the trade war in a speech earlier on Thursday, saying it could trigger a self-fulfilling global downturn. Sterling edged higher, hitting $1.2101, up 0.4% on the day as better-than-expected retail sales data for July supported the pound. (Editing by Angus MacSwan and Hugh Lawson)