Eco Survey's GDP growth forecast for FY20 wide off projection

The GDP growth projection made in Economic Survey 2018-19 was wide off the mark, as the expansion is estimated at only 5 percent during the current fiscal as against 7 percent projected earlier. It is for the second consecutive time that NSO's GDP estimate is significantly lower than the projection made in the survey prepared by the finance ministry.

As per the National Statistical Office (NSO), economic growth is estimated to touch an 11-year low of 5 percent during 2019-20, mainly due to slowdown in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The Economic Survey 2018-19, which was tabled in Parliament in July 2019, had projected growth at 7 percent for the current fiscal ending March 2020.

The Economic Survey 2017-18 had estimated growth for 2018-19 at 7-7.5 percent. The GDP growth, as per the latest NSO data, has been revised downwards to 6.1 percent from the earlier estimate of 6.8 percent. The survey for 2017-18 had projected a GDP expansion in the range of 6.75-7.5 percent. The actual number turned out to be 7 percent, well within the range.

However, during 2016-17 the growth was 8.2 percent against the survey's projection of 7-7.5 percent. The latest Economic Survey 2019-20 prepared by a team led by Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian, which was tabled in Parliament on Friday, said India's economic growth will start picking up and clock 6-6.5 percent in the next fiscal year starting April 2020.