RBI will have to do heavy lifting to boost growth by cutting rates: HDFC Bank

The Budget does not provide any counter-cyclical stimulus to boost consumption, and the Reserve Bank will have to do the heavy lifting to boost growth by cutting rates, the country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank said on Wednesday. The budget announcements are also not inflationary in nature, and the Reserve Bank can cut rates as early as in the June review, it said, adding that the rate-setting monetary policy committee will opt for a status quo on Thursday.

It can be noted that GDP growth is set to slip to a decadal low of 5 percent for FY20, leading to widespread calls for measures from policymakers to push up the number. As risks to inflation materialized, the RBI had surprised all with a pause in rate hikes at the last review. "Going forward, we think that the scales could tip in the favor of growth as soon as inflation prints become more palatable," the report by HDFC Bank's economists said.

It said the headline inflation print will continue to be above seven percent, much higher than the RBI's upper band of 6 percent for January as well and may cool down later. The report argued that it is not the high prices of onions alone that are impacting inflation, saying the price rise is more broad-based and influenced by increasing global food prices.

Inflation will go down slowly during FY21, and the headline number will come below 4 percent level - which is the RBI's target - only by the second half of the next fiscal year, it said. The inflation may go below 3 percent as well by December this year on the high base on a healthy production of both the winter and summer crops, it added.

"The RBI might look through the volatility in inflation and lay emphasis on the wide output gap, delivering a cut perhaps as soon as June 2020," it said. From risks to inflation perspective, the report said, we need to watch out for a prolonged increase in global food prices given their strong correlation with domestic food prices and added that protein inflation could remain a risk amidst any surge in milk, meat and pulses prices.

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