France's Soft Wheat Output Plummets: Worst Harvest in 40 Years

France's farm ministry has lowered its estimate of the country's 2024 soft wheat output, now expected to be 25% below last year's yield, marking one of the worst harvests in four decades. Wet weather has delayed plantings and increased crop disease, impacting overall grain production negatively.

France's farm ministry on Friday drastically reduced its forecast for the nation's 2024 soft wheat production. The output is now expected to be 25% lower than last year's, marking one of the least bountiful harvests in the past 40 years for the European Union's largest grain producer.

Continuous wet weather since autumn has hindered plantings, disrupted plant development, and escalated crop diseases. As a result, grain crop estimates have been consistently downgraded.

'As of August 1, 2024, cereal harvests are still ongoing, delayed by humidity and stormy episodes in July. Yields are revised downward for all of these crops,' the ministry stated in a note. Additional factors, including an exceptionally low planted area of 4.2 million hectares—10.8% less than 2023—combine to place 2024 among the poorest soft wheat harvests in 40 years.

A graphic illustration underscored that this year's harvest would be the lowest since 1986. The ministry's wheat estimate remains above the projections of some French analysts who anticipate a total between 25-26 million tons.

The total grain production in France is now estimated at around 10 million tons below last year's figure, standing at 54.8 million tons for 2024. Interestingly, many spring crops have thrived despite the challenging sowing conditions for winter grains, which led to delayed or renewed planting in soggy fields.

The ministry's first forecast for this year’s grain maize production predicts an output of 13.75 million tons, a 9% increase from 2023's 12.62 million tons. However, for barley, the total output is expected at 10.4 million tons, a marked decline from the previous estimate of 11.3 million and 15% below the 2023 figure. Winter barley production is projected to drop by 26% to 7.2 million tons, while spring barley is set to rise by 25% to 3.2 million tons.