Untimely Rain Disrupts India's Wheat Harvest: Output to Decline by 2026

India's wheat output is predicted to fall by 5% to 10% from 2025 levels due to untimely rain before harvest, missing government projections. Despite the decline, wheat stocks remain robust, allowing for increased exports. Government agencies may purchase less wheat than targeted due to reduced production.

India is expected to see a decline in its wheat output by 2026, with predictions of a 5% to 10% reduction from 2025 levels. This fall, anticipated by trade officials, is attributed to untimely rain and hail impacting yields just before harvest, contrary to government forecasts of a rise.

Despite the anticipated decrease, wheat shortages are unlikely, as New Delhi maintains stock levels at nearly three times the required amount. Nitin Gupta from Olam Agri India noted that while the crop was initially promising, adverse weather conditions have hindered expected growth.

With government wheat stocks rising significantly, India's surplus remains, facilitating increased export allocations. However, procurement agencies are likely to fall short of their 30.3 million ton buying target, potentially acquiring between 26 million and 28 million tons instead.