UNICEF Warns HIV Progress at Risk as Children Face Rising Deaths, Infections

In a stark warning issued this week, UNICEF revealed new modelling conducted jointly with UNAIDS, which shows that shrinking funding and gaps in service delivery threaten to push the global pediatric HIV/AIDS crisis into reverse.

As the world approaches World AIDS Day, UNICEF is sounding the alarm: children and adolescents living with HIV are being left dangerously behind, and without immediate, focused investment, decades of hard-won progress in fighting HIV/AIDS among the youngest populations could unravel.

In a stark warning issued this week, UNICEF revealed new modelling conducted jointly with UNAIDS, which shows that shrinking funding and gaps in service delivery threaten to push the global pediatric HIV/AIDS crisis into reverse.

Dire Projections if Services Decline

The modelling presents two potential futures:

• If HIV programme coverage is cut in half, 1.1 million additional children could acquire HIV and 820,000 more could die from AIDS-related causes by 2040.

• Even if current service levels are simply maintained, an estimated 1.9 million children will still become newly infected, and 990,000 more children will die of AIDS-related causes by 2040.

These outcomes would bring the total pediatric toll to three million infections and 1.8 million deaths in the coming years.

“The world was making progress in the HIV response, but persistent gaps remained even before abrupt global funding cuts disrupted services,” said Anurita Bains, UNICEF Associate Director of HIV and AIDS. “The choice is clear – invest today or risk reversing decades of progress and losing millions of young lives.”

Current Global Trends Paint a Grim Picture

According to 2024 data:

• 120,000 children (0–14 years) acquired HIV

• 75,000 children died from AIDS-related causes — an average of 200 deaths every day

• 150,000 adolescents (15–19 years) were newly infected, with 66% being girls, and in sub-Saharan Africa, that figure reaches 85%

• Only 55% of children living with HIV are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) compared to 78% of adults

• This leaves an estimated 620,000 children without access to treatment

Disparities Across Regions

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the heaviest burden:

• 88% of all children living with HIV

• 83% of new infections in children

• 84% of child AIDS-related deaths

In Eastern and Southern Africa:

• 74% of exposed infants received early infant diagnosis

• 93% of pregnant women living with HIV received treatment

In contrast, Western and Central Africa lag significantly behind:

• Just 31% of infants were tested early

• Only 56% of pregnant women received ART

These disparities highlight the urgent need for equitable investment and targeted support in underserved regions.

Success Stories Show Elimination is Achievable

Despite the setbacks, progress is not only possible—it has already been demonstrated:

• From 2000 to 2024, HIV services averted 4.4 million infections and 2.1 million AIDS-related child deaths

• As of the end of 2024:

  • 21 countries and territories had been certified for eliminating vertical transmission of HIV and/or syphilis

  • The Maldives became the first country to eliminate HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B transmission from mother to child

  • Botswana and Namibia, both high-burden countries, are on the path to elimination

These milestones offer hope—but only if momentum is sustained.

The Call to Action: Scale, Integrate, Invest

UNICEF is urging governments, donors, and partners to act urgently. Their key recommendations include:

• Protecting and expanding HIV services for mothers, children, and adolescents

• Scaling up prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programmes

• Expanding access to pediatric ART with simplified drug regimens

• Integrating HIV services into broader health systems, such as maternal and child health care

• Securing predictable and sustainable donor support through innovative financing mechanisms

Bains stressed the need to treat paediatric HIV as a priority, not a footnote in global health budgets:

“Ending AIDS in children is in jeopardy without focused action. We need to close the gap between children and adults in diagnosis and treatment, and we need to do it now.”

A Critical Moment for Global Solidarity

As the world reflects on progress made since the peak of the AIDS crisis, UNICEF reminds us that children are still being left behind. Without renewed commitment and resources, the goal of ending AIDS by 2030 may be out of reach for the next generation.