Conflict and Aid Cuts Push Global Hunger Hotspots Closer to Catastrophe

FAO and WFP have identified 13 hunger hotspots where acute food insecurity is expected to worsen between June and November 2026, with Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, Nigeria and Somalia placed at the highest level of concern. The warning matters because famine risks are rising at the same time humanitarian food-sector funding has fallen sharply, forcing tougher choices over who receives assistance and how early crises can be prevented.

The next wave of hunger is not arriving without warning. It is building in places where conflict has shattered markets, climate shocks are weakening harvests, food prices are rising and humanitarian aid is being forced to shrink. FAO and WFP have identified 13 hunger hotspots where acute food insecurity is expected to worsen between June and November 2026, with several countries and territories already facing catastrophic conditions or a risk of famine.

Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine remain at the highest level of concern. Nigeria has now been added to that most severe category because populations in Borno State may face Catastrophe levels of acute food insecurity during the outlook period. Somalia has also been added, with populations in Burhakaba District facing a risk of famine.

The wider list includes Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Haiti as hotspots of very high concern. Lebanon and Madagascar have been added to the broader hotspot list because of escalating hostilities and adverse weather conditions, while Myanmar has been reclassified from very high concern to hotspot. Mali remains a hotspot, but is no longer in the highest-concern category.

The list is an early warning map of where conditions could deteriorate further if conflict continues, humanitarian access remains constrained, climate shocks intensify and aid cuts deepen.

Conflict Is Turning Hunger Into a Weapon of Collapse

Armed conflict and organized violence remain the primary drivers of acute food insecurity in 12 of the 13 hunger hotspots. Hunger in these contexts is not caused only by poor harvests or high food prices. It is driven by the breakdown of normal life: displacement, damaged infrastructure, blocked roads, disrupted markets, lost livelihoods and restrictions on humanitarian access.

Sudan is among the clearest examples. A risk of famine has been identified in areas across North Darfur, South Darfur and South Kordofan under a reasonable worst-case scenario involving intensified conflict and further restrictions on the movement of people, goods and humanitarian assistance. South Sudan faces similarly grave risks in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile, where conflict, displacement and access constraints are worsening already extreme food insecurity.

Yemen remains one of the world's most severe food crises, with high food prices, internal and regional conflict, climate shocks, foreign exchange constraints and severe humanitarian funding shortfalls limiting household purchasing power and shrinking assistance coverage. In Palestine, conditions in the Gaza Strip have improved since the October 2025 ceasefire, but remain fragile because of continuing conflict, inflow restrictions, damaged infrastructure and the slow recovery of livelihoods. In the West Bank, violence, movement restrictions, demolitions and displacement continue to undermine agricultural livelihoods and food access.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, conflict in eastern provinces, large-scale displacement, market disruption and disease outbreaks are expected to keep acute food insecurity high. In Afghanistan, conflict with Pakistan, border disruptions, dry conditions and weak macroeconomic conditions are compounding hunger risks. In Haiti, gang violence is restricting access to land, markets and livelihood opportunities.

Food insecurity in these hotspots is not only an agricultural problem, but a conflict, protection, governance and access crisis.

Aid Cuts Are Arriving When Hunger Is Getting Worse

Humanitarian assistance to food sectors in crisis contexts declined by an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025, returning to levels last seen in 2016–2017. This has happened even as acute food insecurity remains persistently high and the share of the analysed population facing high levels of acute food insecurity has doubled globally.

The cuts have already changed the scale of response. In 2025, humanitarian actors had to narrow assistance from 178 million people initially targeted to 114 million, ultimately reaching nearly 98 million people, about 25 million fewer than in 2024. In 2026, partners aim to assist 135 million people globally, but immediate life-saving assistance is being prioritized for 87 million people most at risk. As of June 2026, only about one third of requirements had been met.

This is more than a funding gap. It is a triage problem. When resources shrink, agencies must decide which communities receive food, nutrition support, agricultural inputs, cash assistance or livelihood protection, and which do not. The consequences are especially severe in the largest crises. Afghanistan, the DRC, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen accounted for 44 percent of the global reduction in humanitarian assistance to food sectors in crisis contexts in 2025. The same countries recorded a combined increase of about 6 million people facing Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity.

Cuts are also weakening the systems that detect deterioration. Reductions in assessments, monitoring and analytical capacity make it harder to identify who is most at risk, compare trends and prioritize assistance. That is dangerous because famine prevention depends on evidence arriving early enough to trigger decisions.

If aid falls at the same time data systems weaken, the world risks seeing less precisely just as hunger worsens more quickly.

El Niño, Fuel Prices and Fertilizer Costs Are Widening the Threat

Conflict remains the dominant driver, but climate and economic shocks are making the outlook more dangerous. The report points to a likely transition toward El Niño conditions during the outlook period, with uneven rainfall patterns that could disrupt agricultural production. Some regions may face drier-than-average conditions, while others could face flooding. Somalia is already dealing with the cumulative effects of repeated poor rainy seasons, crop losses, depleted pasture and water resources. Madagascar has been added as a hotspot after erratic weather and cyclone damage raised the risk of a second consecutive below-average national paddy harvest. Haiti faces below-average rainfall risks, while Afghanistan is affected by drought, below-average snowpack and reduced water availability.

Economic pressures are also tightening the squeeze on vulnerable households. Slower growth, inflationary risks and shocks to energy, freight and fertilizer markets are expected to worsen acute food insecurity in several hotspots. The conflict in the Middle East is highlighted as a wider risk because of its implications for fuel, fertilizer, shipping costs and food prices.

Higher fuel costs raise transport prices. Higher fertilizer prices can reduce agricultural production. Shipping disruptions can delay food and humanitarian supplies. Currency weakness and foreign exchange shortages can make imports more expensive. For households already spending most of their income on food, even small price increases can mean fewer meals, more debt or the sale of productive assets.

A crisis that begins with conflict or drought can quickly become a market-access crisis, especially in countries dependent on food imports, remittances or humanitarian assistance.

The Real Test Is Whether Warning Leads to Action

Modern famines are often foreseeable and preventable, but only if warning signs trigger timely political, financial and operational decisions. Emergency food assistance can save lives, but livelihood support, agricultural inputs, nutrition services, cash assistance and access to basic services can help prevent households from falling deeper into crisis. Anticipatory action is vital where forecasts already point to climate hazards, market shocks or worsening displacement.

Governments in hotspot countries need to protect civilians, keep markets functioning and allow humanitarian access. Donors need to decide whether to finance early intervention or pay for a larger emergency later. Humanitarian agencies must prioritize limited resources while trying to preserve impartial assistance. Farmers, pastoralists, displaced people, refugees, children and women are among those most exposed when assistance is delayed or reduced.

The next signals to watch are donor funding levels, humanitarian access in conflict zones, updated IPC and Cadre Harmonisé projections, El Niño-related rainfall patterns, food and fuel prices, and whether early warnings translate into scaled food, nutrition and livelihood support.