India expects below-normal September rains after weak August

India ​is likely to receive below-average monsoon rainfall ​in September after August precipitation came ‌in ​16% below normal, the weather department said on Monday, raising concerns about crop yields and economic growth in Asia's third-largest economy. Poor ‌rainfall during the key crop-maturing month of September could hurt yields of summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybean, corn and pulses, while reducing soil moisture needed for winter-sown crops including wheat and rapeseed.

September ‌rainfall is forecast at less than 91% of the long-term average, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of ‌the India Meteorological Department. Average maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal in September because of the rain shortfall, Mohapatra said.

The monsoon provides about 70% of India's annual rainfall and replenishes reservoirs, rivers and ⁠groundwater in ​the nearly $4 trillion economy, ⁠where almost half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population depends on agriculture for its livelihood. Mohapatra said ⁠the El Nino weather pattern, which contributed to lower rainfall in August, had strengthened further.

El Nino is characterised ​by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, disrupting weather ⁠patterns globally and often bringing drier conditions to parts of Asia. India has experienced below-average rainfall in many past El Nino ⁠years, ​at times triggering severe droughts that damaged crops and prompted restrictions on exports of some grains.

Crops already affected by below-average rainfall in August are entering critical pod-formation and development ⁠stages, increasing the risk of yield losses, said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Mumbai-based ⁠brokerage Phillip Capital India. "September ⁠rainfall is also crucial for winter crop sowing. If soil moisture levels fall, it could create problems for planting wheat, chickpea and rapeseed," Bansod ‌said.