ROI-Are AI credit cracks a warning, or a 'buy' signal?: McGeever

"Hyperion" and "Beignet" are ​two words many investors may not be familiar with. But they could soon become symbolic of the excesses ​of the borrowing and spending binge driving the record-breaking US artificial intelligence build-out. "Hyperion" is ‌the ​name of Meta Platforms' AI data center facility under construction in Richland Parish, Louisiana. It is the Facebook owner’s largest data center project with 5 gigawatts of compute capacity, and has absorbed more than $50 billion in investment.

Bonds sold last year to fund the project were issued through a joint venture in a vehicle called "Beignet Investor," named after the famous New Orleans pastry. As Meta's stake is ‌a minority one at 20%, the project's liabilities are off-balance sheet, just like some $3 trillion of other financing and leasing structures that Nvidia, Broadcom and hyperscalers such as Amazon and Alphabet are keeping off their balance sheets, according to Morgan Stanley.

The Beignet bonds – $27 billion of 6.581% senior secured notes maturing in 2049 – were given an A+ credit rating at issuance by S&P Global. However, the ratings agency also warned that "substantial credit risk" could pass to Meta during both the facility’s construction and operation phases. That risk may be materializing, as the price ‌of these bonds is now sliding fast. On Monday, they traded at 91 cents on the dollar, pushing the yield as high as 7.55%. That's around 230 basis points above Treasuries, a wider spread than the 185 bps at launch, but narrower ‌than the record-wide 255 bps in July. So, no cause for panic, but it is one of many signs that cracks may be beginning to appear in parts of the AI financing edifice.

Credit default swap (CDS) rates, the cost of insuring against default, for firms in the AI ecosystem also appear to be ringing alarm bells. Meta’s on Monday climbed above July's peak and is close to 100 basis points – and most of Big Tech's CDS are also now at record levels. On top of this, Oracle only a few days ago declared a "force majeure" notice citing potential delays in securing power for an AI data center ⁠in New Mexico, ​which could now be delayed by up to a year. Coincidentally, one ⁠of the other backers in Project Jupiter is again Blue Owl.

Of course, Meta and its peers are highly unlikely to default or go bust given the strength of their underlying businesses. This begs the question: is the current selloff in these companies' debt logical given the scale of borrowing relative to expected revenue, ⁠or are these bonds a “screaming buy”? GREAT EXPECTATIONS

Where you fall on that question – as ever with the AI story – boils down to whether you believe the returns will eventually outstrip the outlay, and how long you are prepared to wait. The enormous investments in the AI buildout ​are well-documented by now. Estimates vary, but around $1 trillion in AI capital expenditure (capex) is expected this year and around $1.2 trillion set for next year, with economists at Oxford Economics tallying up cumulative projected AI investment of around $3.8 trillion from 2024 to ⁠2028. A significant portion of this is now being debt-financed, as tech firms have burned through their large cash piles.

Given these eye-popping outlays, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that the hyperscalers will need to generate annual AI revenues of roughly $300 billion in the next few years to break even. Assuming hyperscalers are targeting a return ⁠on ​investment of 15%-20%, they would need to make $570-$800 billion of additional profit, Oxford Economics reckons. "This is hard to square with our estimates of the additional GDP that AI will create," the firm’s economists wrote last week. They estimate AI will boost US GDP by $850 billion by 2032. So, at a 15% return on investment, the hyperscalers – just a handful of firms – would need to capture around two-thirds of this additional GDP, or almost all of it if we assume a 20% rate of return.

As Oxford Economics ⁠noted, "This seems very unlikely." Meanwhile, AI borrowing and investing continues. Hyperscalers have issued around $250 billion of debt this year, and that total is expected to rise sharply next year, even as the cost of doing so also keeps increasing. The Federal Reserve has ⁠started to hike its policy rate, and Treasury yields are currently the ⁠highest since before the global financial crisis. The interest burden on hyperscalers' borrowings – both on- and off-balance sheet – is getting heavier.

How heavy is too heavy? The fate of Meta’s “deep-fried” debt deal could offer some clues. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)

Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI ‌on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the ‌Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets ​and finance seven days a week.

(By Jamie McGeever Editing by Marguerita Choy)