Building Resilience Before Crisis Hits: Asia-Pacific Reimagines the Future of Social Protection

Asia-Pacific’s social protection coverage has expanded, but major gaps leave informal workers and vulnerable groups exposed to economic, climate and demographic shocks. ADB calls for integrated, financially sustainable and digitally inclusive systems that strengthen poverty reduction, jobs, household resilience and long-term economic development.

Asia and the Pacific has expanded social protection significantly, but millions of people remain exposed when jobs disappear, prices rise, disasters strike or families face illness and old age. An Asian Development Bank (ADB) report argues that governments now need to move beyond fragmented welfare schemes and build connected systems covering people throughout their lives. Coverage has risen from 38.7% of the population in 2015 to 53.6%, but large gaps remain, particularly among informal workers, children, women, older people and persons with disabilities.

The challenge is becoming more urgent as climate disasters, demographic ageing, economic shocks and technological change reshape vulnerability. The COVID-19 pandemic and cost-of-living pressures pushed an estimated additional 42 million people into extreme poverty in 2022 compared with pre-pandemic expectations. The report says social protection should therefore be treated as economic and resilience infrastructure rather than simply emergency assistance.

The Missing Middle Could Decide the Next Phase of Social Protection

One of the biggest weaknesses is the "missing middle": people who may not qualify for poverty-targeted assistance but work outside formal employment systems and therefore lack pensions, unemployment protection and other contributory benefits.

Around 57% of people in South Asia and 36% in East Asia and the Pacific are neither receiving social assistance nor contributing to social insurance. Only one in four children aged 0–15 receives child benefits. Existing assistance can also be too small to protect household living standards.

Governments need systems that allow workers to move between social assistance and contributory insurance as their employment and income change. Vietnam provides one example. Its reforms reduce the minimum pension contribution period from 20 years to 15 years and the minimum age for noncontributory pensions from 80 to 75. Expanded compulsory insurance could cover around 3 million additional workers, according to government estimates cited in the report.

For policymakers, extending coverage to informal workers will require flexible contribution arrangements, better identification systems and closer coordination between labour-market policies, social assistance and social insurance.

Every Dollar Spent Can Travel Further Through the Economy

The report also presents social protection as an economic investment. Estimates cited suggest that providing a basic level of social security would require additional annual spending of around 0.8% of GDP, while essential health care would require approximately another 1.2%.

Evidence from 28 studies indicates that every $1 delivered through cash transfers can generate roughly $1.30 in wider economic activity. Families receiving assistance spend on food, transport, education and local services, allowing money to circulate through businesses and communities.

ADB is also supporting 11 economic-inclusion programmes across Bangladesh, India, Lao PDR, Marshall Islands, Mongolia, Philippines and Sri Lanka, reaching more than 200,000 people. Such programmes combine assistance with skills, productive assets, financial services, employment support and coaching. Evaluated graduation programmes cited in the report have produced estimated returns of $1.33–$4.33 for every $1 invested.

For development partners, the opportunity is to connect social protection with jobs, education, financial inclusion, gender equality and livelihood programmes instead of financing isolated interventions.

Climate Risk Is Turning Safety Nets Into Frontline Infrastructure

Climate change adds another dimension. Social protection systems increasingly need to act before disasters, not simply compensate families afterward. Governments can connect social registries with weather forecasts, early-warning information and disaster-risk financing so cash and other assistance can be expanded quickly when threats emerge.

Pakistan, the Philippines, Lao PDR and Timor-Leste provide examples of efforts to strengthen adaptive and shock-responsive approaches.

Evidence cited in the report suggests anticipatory interventions can generate returns of up to $7 for every $1 invested. For governments and development institutions, this strengthens the case for investing in beneficiary registries, climate-risk information, emergency financing and reliable payment infrastructure before disasters occur.

Private companies also have opportunities in digital payments, financial services, insurance, telecommunications, employment platforms and technology infrastructure. However, stronger safeguards will be needed around cybersecurity, privacy and commercial use of sensitive beneficiary information.

Digital Protection Must Not Leave the Most Vulnerable Offline

Digitalisation can make registration, payments and monitoring faster and cheaper, but technology can also become another barrier. Older people, persons with disabilities, low-income households and people with poor connectivity or limited digital skills can struggle with digital-only services.

Governments should therefore maintain accessible offline options, human assistance and effective grievance mechanisms while expanding digital systems. Technology should reduce exclusion rather than create a new divide between people who can navigate digital platforms and those who cannot.

The report ultimately proposes nine guiding principles covering life-cycle protection, equality and inclusion, participation, empowerment and a just transition, resilience, transparency and accountability, human rights, national ownership and financial sustainability.

For governments, the immediate priority is not simply spending more but connecting policies, programmes, financing and delivery systems. Development partners can provide concessional financing, technical expertise, institutional capacity and support for scalable pilots. Businesses can contribute technology, insurance, financial services, training and delivery solutions, but governments must retain strong oversight.

The future of social protection in Asia-Pacific will therefore depend on whether countries can transform scattered safety nets into systems that protect people through ordinary life transitions and extraordinary shocks. Done effectively, that transition could simultaneously strengthen poverty reduction, workforce resilience, domestic demand, climate preparedness and long-term economic development.