ANALYSIS-Trump-Zelenskiy rift threatens vital support for Kyiv

From US threats to cut off intelligence support for Ukraine to ​a waiver of tariffs on Russian exports and a diesel deal that could help Russia fund its war, ‌it has ​been a damaging week for ties between Kyiv and its most important ally, Washington. US President Donald Trump, frustrated by high energy costs he blames partly on Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, has repeatedly criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. A disruption of US-provided satellite internet services raised fears that Ukraine could be vulnerable as it prepares for another winter of Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Zelenskiy responded to Trump's barbs with an unusually sharp series of public criticisms of Trump, suggesting the US was now favoring Russia. He ‌said Ukraine would defy Trump's demand to stop striking Russian energy targets, citing Russia's continued attacks. Intensifying the discord, Trump waived key US Russia-related sanctions and tariffs on Friday, shortly before they were scheduled to take effect. That prompted Zelenskiy to say in social media posts that Trump's action would encourage Russia to continue attacks on Ukraine.

The widening rift has sparked concerns that Trump and Zelenskiy's tumultuous relationship could lead to even worse outcomes for Kyiv. Trump could yet restrict the supply of weapons to Ukraine, follow through on threats to stop sharing battlefield intelligence, or strike more economic deals with Moscow. Despite Zelenskiy's remarks, Kyiv wants to continue dialogue with Trump's envoys, his friend Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, two Ukrainian officials familiar ‌with the talks said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Denys Sienik, chargé d'affaires at Ukraine's embassy in Washington, told Newsmax on Friday that Ukraine was grateful to Trump and his team for their efforts to end the war and said Ukraine was willing to engage in talks with Russia. Trump told reporters on Friday he would ‌continue to deal with both Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I want that war to end,” he said.

'MISSED OPPORTUNITY': FORMER US OFFICIAL Daniel Fried, the senior State Department official on Europe from 2005 to 2009, said it was unclear whether Washington was making a lasting shift away from Ukraine, but the fallout was damaging prospects for an end to the war that began with Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion.

"It's not only a missed opportunity, it causes genuine suffering in Ukraine and encourages Putin to continue the war, so it's not cost-free," said Fried, now at the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank. Trump's relationship with Zelenskiy has long been uneasy. Trump and US Vice President JD Vance publicly upbraided Zelenskiy during an Oval Office meeting in February 2025. Washington has paused or slowed military assistance to Ukraine under Trump, while allowing European allies to purchase US weapons for Kyiv.

The ⁠relationship had steadied until ​Ukraine's strikes this year on energy sites in Russia began contributing to rising fuel prices. High ⁠gasoline and diesel prices are a political headache for Trump ahead of November's midterm elections, in which his Republican Party could lose its majorities in the US Congress, according to analysts. Experts say that surge in energy costs is mainly the result of the US-Israeli war with Iran, which brought Iranian attacks on energy facilities and has largely shut the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Frustrated by Zelenskiy, however, Trump turned to Russia to increase ⁠fuel supply and contain prices, according to a person familiar with the internal debate, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Trump said on October 9 he had reached a deal with Putin to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian fuel and import Russian diesel.

In an executive order released by the White House on Friday, Trump also waived key Russia-related US sanctions and tariffs shortly before they were ​supposed to take effect under the Graham Act, which Trump signed last month. Although the law, named for the late US Senator Lindsey Graham, called for new penalties on Russia starting next week, it also allows the president to waive them if it is in the US national interest to do so.

Zelenskiy ⁠said Trump's latest action undercuts the Graham Act's main goal and will fuel Russia's "desire to keep killing people." The US diesel deal with Russia and the waiver are the latest steps in what Zelenskiy said he expects to be continued sanctions relief on Moscow.

The prospect of the US continuing to pressure Russia to end the war has dimmed since Graham's death in July, Zelenskiy said. Graham, a South Carolina Republican and a confidant of Trump, strongly ⁠supported ​Ukraine. "It’s difficult without him, I’ll be honest," the Ukrainian president wrote.

HIGH STAKES FOR UKRAINE For Kyiv, the stakes are high and immediate. Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine had received no warning from Western partners before a deadly Russian attack on the capital.

Without US intelligence, Ukraine could face greater difficulty detecting and countering Russian missile and drone attacks, particularly against energy infrastructure that Moscow has repeatedly targeted during previous winters. Trump has said the US is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine. But Zelenskiy told NPR that US officials had warned Ukrainian commanders intelligence could be reduced or cut off.

Ukraine's Starshield system, the military-grade version of SpaceX's Starlink service, was disrupted after what two US officials and a Western ⁠official briefed on the matter said was an order originating from the White House, Reuters reported on Thursday. The service has been partially restored, but the episode highlighted the vulnerability created by Ukraine's dependence on technology controlled by US companies and subject to decisions by the Trump administration.

Trump may face resistance if congressional Republicans see his approach ⁠as weakening Ukraine while benefiting Russia. Ukraine retains support among Trump's fellow Republicans, some of whom argue ⁠that Washington should not pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement on terms favorable to Moscow. Zelenskiy's tough responses to Trump were risky, but he may be counting on a power shift on Capitol Hill after the midterm elections to make it harder for Trump to ease sanctions on Russia and further reduce military assistance to Kyiv, said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration and head of the Global Situation Room consultancy.

“Zelenskiy knows who he’s dealing with,” he said. “Trump’s threats don’t have the ‌same kind of effect as they did when JD Vance ‌tried to shame him in the Oval Office.”