INSTANT VIEW-China's economic growth accelerates to 4.5% in third quarter

China's economic growth rebounded to 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, ​beating expectations and easing the pressure on policymakers for ​delivering more aggressive stimulus measures to meet the ‌annual ​target. The third-quarter gross domestic product growth rate, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from ‌the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period.

KEY POINTS COMMENTARY

ANDY JI, ASIAN FX & ‌RATES ANALYST, ITC MARKETS, SHANGHAI: "China’s Q3 print beat on both the YoY and QoQ measures. The result puts ‌China's full-year 4.5%-5% growth target within reach, though still requiring a strong Q4. High-tech manufacturing, chip output, NEVs, and export delivery values reflect a competitive industrial upgrading that is real and accelerating.

"However, the growth composition remains deeply unbalanced... Growth is export- and state-led; domestic demand is not yet self-sustaining, and the ⁠property sector ​shows no floor. "The GDP beat and ⁠retail sales surprise reduce the urgency for immediate broad-based easing. The PBOC has kept its policy rate steady since a cut in May 2025. ⁠While monetary policy is effectively on hold, the active policy debate is fiscal."

BACKGROUND