INSTANT VIEW-China's economic growth accelerates to 4.5% in third quarter

China's economic growth rebounded to 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating expectations and easing the pressure on policymakers ​for delivering more aggressive stimulus measures to meet the annual target.

The third-quarter gross domestic ​product growth rate, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on ‌Monday, beat ​the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period. KEY POINTS

COMMENTARY ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG:

"The economic momentum remained subdued in September. The retail sales growth rebounded slightly. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales barely grew compared to a year ago. The GDP growth rate in Q3 rebounded to 4.5%. The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters combined grew by 4.6%, which is still above the lower end ‌of the growth target zone. I wonder if this means that the government doesn't need to make significant change to the policy stance in Q4 to achieve the growth target for ‌the full year." RAYMOND YEUNG, CHIEF CHINA ECONOMIST, ANZ, HONG KONG:

"Overall, we maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.6%, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Weak domestic demand, persistent deflationary pressure and an ongoing property downturn continue to constrain activity. "While exports have provided an important buffer, they are unlikely to fully offset softness elsewhere in the economy. Growth has stabilised, but it has not yet entered a self-sustaining recovery."

HO WOEI CHEN, ECONOMIST, UOB, SINGAPORE: "External demand is still keeping ⁠the economy ​afloat, and I think that is also why the ⁠government is not really very aggressive in the stimulus.

"We see some targeted support here and there, but broad-based easing is not very likely at this point because I think growth is still on target at the bottom of the ⁠forecast range. "Our forecast now is 4.5%."

ANDY JI, ASIAN FX & RATES ANALYST, ITC MARKETS, SHANGHAI: "China’s Q3 print beat on both the YoY and QoQ measures. The result puts China's full-year 4.5%-5% growth target within reach, though still requiring ​a strong Q4. High-tech manufacturing, chip output, NEVs, and export delivery values reflect a competitive industrial upgrading that is real and accelerating.

"However, the growth composition remains deeply unbalanced... Growth is ⁠export- and state-led; domestic demand is not yet self-sustaining, and the property sector shows no floor. "The GDP beat and retail sales surprise reduce the urgency for immediate broad-based easing. The PBOC has kept its policy rate steady since a cut in May ⁠2025. ​While monetary policy is effectively on hold, the active policy debate is fiscal."

BACKGROUND