FACTBOX-US House races to watch in the 2026 elections

Republicans in the US House of Representatives are defending a narrow majority in November's midterm elections. History suggests Democrats will gain seats - ​they would need to net four to win control of the chamber. But Republicans kickstarted a national ‌redistricting battle that ​could make Democrats' path to a majority slightly more difficult. Here are some races to watch:

CAN LAWLER DEFY TRUMP'S GRAVITY? US Representative Mike Lawler of New York is one of just three Republicans who represent a congressional district Kamala Harris won in 2024. The others are an open seat in Nebraska and a Pennsylvania district US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is favored to win. That makes Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection.

His opponent, Cait Conley, is a combat veteran and national security expert. Lawler has outraised Conley ‌and Republican outside groups have likewise outspent Democrats in this district, $6.3 million to $5 million.

Two polls conducted in late September show both Lawler and Conley with narrow leads in this toss-up race. REPUBLICAN REDISTRICTING MAY GO SOUTH IN TEXAS

When Texas Republicans kicked off a national gerrymandering war against Democrats in the hopes of defying historical trends to hold their fragile majority in Washington, they sought to pick up five seats. Yet as Election Day nears, three of those seats are in play - all in South Texas. Democratic US Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are now running in districts President Donald Trump would have won by 10 percentage points in 2024. The third district, which was redrawn from a safe Democratic seat into one Trump also ‌would have carried by 10 points, is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia.

Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores, a former Texas Army National Guard infantry captain and former assistant US attorney. Republican groups have spent $8.8 million on this race, compared with $7.8 million by Democrats. DAVIS TRIES TO DEFY A NORTH ‌CAROLINA GERRYMANDER

Republicans redrew Democratic US Representative Don Davis' district, shifting it from a North Carolina district Trump won by 3 points to one he would have carried by double digits. Davis is seeking reelection anyway.

Democrats have outspent Republicans in this district, $9.5 million to $7.5 million. A GOLDEN FLIP IN MAINE?

The retirement of centrist Democratic US Representative Jared Golden in a district Trump won by 9 points in 2024 opened a key flip opportunity for Republicans. Former Maine Governor Paul LePage is running against progressive state auditor Matt Dunlap. LePage has outraised Dunlap and had nearly $1 million available to spend at the end of September. House Democrats' campaign arm added Dunlap to its "Red to Blue" program for top offensive opportunities in August.

Polls last month showed Dunlap holding a slim lead over LePage. HIGH HOPES IN OHIO

US Representative Max Miller of Ohio was reelected by 15 points in 2024, though an independent ⁠candidate got 13% of ​the vote. Trump won the district by a smaller margin than Miller, and domestic and child ⁠abuse allegations have made the congressman uniquely vulnerable. Miller has denied the allegations, but US Senator Bernie Moreno, a fellow Ohio Republican, has called on him to resign and end his reelection campaign. Moreno's daughter is Miller's ex-wife.

The once safe seat is now seen as a toss-up. Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, is an ironworker, a Brook Park city councilor and a member of Democrats' Red to Blue program. Democrats have poured $8 million ⁠into flipping the seat, compared to Republicans' $3.3 million. THIRD TIME'S A CHARM IN IOWA?

US Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa faces a familiar opponent in former state Representative Christina Bohannan, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024. This time, however, could be different. Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns. Trump's policies have driven up ​the price of diesel and fertilizer as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle.

Democrats have outspent Republicans here, $8.3 million to $6.8 million. SOUTH FLORIDA REPUBLICAN BREAKS WITH TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION

"Mr. President, some of your immigration efforts have gone too far." That warning came last month from an incumbent Republican, US Representative ⁠Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida, who represents a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024. Salazar is still favored to win reelection, but her high-profile break with the president on a signature issue is a sign Republicans could lose ground with the Latino voters who helped return Trump to the White House.

Like Salazar, her opponent, Eliott Rodriguez, is a former TV news anchor. Democrats added Rodriguez to their Red to Blue program last week ⁠but ​haven't invested much money in his race, though they've outspent Republicans by about $200,000. WILL VOTERS SEND MGP BACK TO WASHINGTON?

Centrist Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington authored a resolution condemning a fellow Democrat and helped Republicans advance their agenda by bucking her party on traditionally party-line procedural votes. That may help her in a district Trump narrowly won in 2024. Gluesenkamp Perez finished second in Washington's top-two primary, trailing state Senate Republican Leader John Braun. Republicans have outspent Democrats, $8.9 million to $3.5 million.

DEMOCRATS RAISING THE BAR IN KENTUCKY? Democrats only hold one of Kentucky's six US House seats. But they see an opening in the 6th District, where incumbent Representative Andy Barr is the Republican nominee for US Senate.

The Republican nominee is ⁠Ralph Alvarado, a former Kentucky state senator and ex-head of the Tennessee health department. His opponent is Democrat Zach Dembo, an ex-Navy JAG officer and former federal prosecutor. There's little daylight between the candidates in fundraising, and both parties have poured roughly the same amount of money into the race.

Trump won the district by 15 points ⁠in 2024. MAY THE BEST DEM WIN

California's top-two primary system occasionally pits two members of the same ⁠party against each other in a general election. This year, US Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim — both Republicans — are running for the same seat after Democrats redrew the state's congressional map. US Representative Doris Matsui, a Democrat, is similarly facing Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang, a democratic socialist. Matsui is backed by the Democratic establishment, including the state party, Governor Gavin Newsom, both US senators and 37 members of California's congressional delegation.

The outcome won't affect the balance of power in the House, but it could affect the makeup of ‌a future Democratic majority. Several progressive or democratic socialist candidates ‌have ousted mainstream or moderate Democrats in primaries this year, giving the left wing of the party significant momentum heading into a presidential election cycle in 2028.