Oil's pullback, solid data fuel bounce in global stocks

Global stocks ​were headed for gains on Monday after oil prices declined sharply, ‌reversing ​some of the gloom cast by Friday's rout in US tech shares. In New York, US stock indexes opened higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.2% and the S&P 500 up 1%. SpaceX and Amazon each rose 5%.

US manufacturing activity picked up in October amid solid domestic demand, with ‌the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI rising to 55.5 last month from 54.5 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI would stay at 54.5. Brent crude futures fell 6.5% to about $106 as Iranian negotiators left talks with Qatari mediators and a draft proposal is being circulated with a follow-up meeting possible . US President Donald Trump recently threatened new attacks against Iran .

Monday's stock rally was an antidote for ‌the anxiety of Friday, when the Nasdaq posted its largest retreat in four months, and the latest sign that investors' views on the AI boom at the center of this year's ‌stock advance are becoming more contentious. "The bar for performance is rising and higher volatility in the AI trade is likely to be the new normal in this stage of the cycle," said Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management.

A PIVOTAL WEEK Markets face a pivotal week, with investors digesting the Federal Reserve's and the European Central Bank’s latest policy decisions. Earnings season in full swing -- US technology stalwart Apple is due to report earnings after the close on Monday -- and the ⁠US midterm ​elections taking place on Tuesday.

In Europe's afternoon, MSCI's main ⁠world stocks index was up 0.5% at 1,120, while Europe's STOXX 600 was up 0.3%, with tech stocks rising 0.5%. The gains came after a softer manufacturing report on the continent, as new order growth slowed and rising costs from energy ⁠and supply-chain disruptions squeezed margins. The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 52.7 last month from 52.9 in September — which was the highest reading since May 2022 — but was above a preliminary estimate of 52.4. ​Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in activity.

"Further expected downside for the euro area PMI is a drag on our Stoxx 600 forecast trajectory," wrote Sebastian Raedler, head of European equity ⁠strategy at BofA. "However, the main reason for our caution on European equities is the risk of disappointment in the AI capex cycle as AI models commoditise and competitive moats prove limited."

Euro zone government bonds were slightly lower after last week's rally, ⁠while ​investor sentiment remained fragile amid concerns over France's fiscal outlook and continuing street unrest. BIG EXPECTATIONS FOR APPLE REPORT

Apple will face scrutiny over three key issues: its crucial holiday-quarter outlook, CEO remarks on AI and the revamped Siri, and rising memory-chip costs that analysts expect to drag quarterly profit growth to its weakest in six quarters. On the AI front, Goldman Sachs analysts expect capital spending by ⁠hyperscalers to nearly double to $800 billion this year and rise further to $1.2 trillion in 2027. At the same time, they see S&P 500 earnings per share growth slowing to 18% next year ⁠from nearly 30% in 2026.

In foreign exchange markets, ⁠major currencies were largely subdued. The euro rose 0.46% to $1.1199, while the dollar was up 0.16% at 157.90 yen. Among central banks meeting this week, markets are pricing in rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and Riksbank, while the Norges Bank is seen on ‌hold.

Data due this week include ‌the closely watched non-farm payrolls report on Friday.