Sri Lanka targets growth beyond crisis recovery in budget, on course for IMF exit

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake unveiled a budget on Thursday aimed at shifting Sri Lanka's economy from recovery to growth, saying the country had liquidity to meet debt repayments and expected to successfully complete its IMF programme in ‌March. Sri Lanka has experienced a turnaround since an unprecedented financial crisis, triggered by a severe dollar shortage four years ago.

Growth is forecast at 4.4% this year, according to the World Bank, while foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt to $6.9 billion. Investor confidence has also improved, with Fitch Ratings upgrading Sri Lanka to B-minus from CCC-plus in September. The budget seeks to ‌anchor Sri Lanka's exit from the $2.9-billion International Monetary Fund programme in March, sustain growth at a time of high energy prices, contain inflation - which rose to 8.3% ‌in October from 2.2% in March - and pave the way for a return to bond markets.

"The aim of this budget is to move from recovery to transformation," Dissanayake said, outlining the growth, public revenue and primary surplus numbers from the last two years. "The expectation of this budget is to put in place reforms, structures and new legislation needed to achieve transformation," he said. "Every rupee invested by this budget will ⁠be to ​ensure economic inclusivity and sovereignty for all Sri ⁠Lankans.”

Sri Lanka has sufficient liquidity to repay $2.9 billion of total debt in 2027 and $3.5 billion in 2028, he said, adding that the government estimates it will reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to 87% by 2032 ⁠under the IMF programme. For 2026, Sri Lanka's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 92.9%, down from 114.2% in 2022.

DISSANAYAKE FLAGS HIGH FUEL BILL Sri Lanka will not move away from its medium-term ​revenue strategy, which outlines policies from 2027 to 2031 to keep the primary surplus at 2.3%, total revenue at about 15.5% of GDP and tax revenue ⁠at 14.2% of GDP, Dissanayake told lawmakers.

The government's fiscal strategy targets a 2.6% surplus in 2027, higher than the IMF programme target of 2.3%. The impact of the US war on Iran has led Sri ⁠Lanka ​to spend $4.4 billion on fuel purchases in the first nine months of this year, which was the full amount it spent for all of 2025, Dissanayake said, outlining plans to expand the country's only refinery to 100,000 barrels, expand fuel storage and build new pipelines to improve fuel supply.

The budget also aims to bolster ⁠confidence among rating agencies as Sri Lanka seeks an upgrade ahead of its return to international bond markets and the resumption of foreign debt repayments in 2028, analysts ⁠said. Sri Lanka's external debt repayments are estimated ⁠at around $1.4 billion that year.

Petar Atanasov, co-head of sovereign research at emerging markets-focused fund Gramercy, said before Dissanayake's speech that it would be seen "as the first budget that is no longer focused solely on crisis management, so investors will scrutinize the balance ‌between promoting growth-enhancing initiatives and ‌maintaining fiscal prudence."