Pollsters Grapple with 'Trump Effect' After Unexpected Election Result

Following Donald Trump's surprising victory over Kamala Harris, U.S. pollsters are analyzing why their predictions underestimated his support for a third time. Polls showed Trump trailing, but final results revealed a 2-point national lead. Experts examine potential biases and the challenges of reaching Trump's base in surveys.

Following Republican President-elect Donald Trump's unexpected victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. pollsters are seeking to understand why their forecasts underestimated his support once again. Pre-election surveys by various national polling organizations showed Trump trailing Harris by a narrow margin.

According to final vote tallies, Trump led Harris nationally by 50% to 48%, a deviation from earlier forecasts. Experts suggest this undershoot might be due to difficulties in engaging Trump's supporters in polls, a challenge that has persisted since the 2016 election cycle.

Despite improvements in survey methodology, including more targeted outreach efforts, pollsters continue to face declining response rates. This non-response challenge complicates the accuracy of election predictions, prompting ongoing investigations into potential biases and innovations in public opinion research.