Kenya’s livestock to increase exponentially by 2050 amid rise in human population: FAO

A new survey reveals that the livestock sector in Kenya is likely to inflate exponentially in the next 30 years and anchor the nation's food sufficiency despite the rapid increase in population.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the livestock sector in Kenya will supply an additional 7.8 million tonnes of milk, beef and chicken meat to the population by 2050 with an increase of about 150 percent with respect to the current figure.

The country's animal population is 18.8 million cattle — 14.3 million beef cattle and 4.5 million cows. It also has 26.7 million goats, 18.9 million sheep, 3.2 million camels, 44.6 million poultry, 1.9 million donkeys and 0.5 million pigs, the FAO revealed.

On the other hand, according to an estimation marked by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the human population presently stands at 47 million and is projected to grow to 96 million by 2050. The country's population is expected to double to 96 million and nearly 50 percent of the people to live in urban areas vis-à-vis 27 percent today in the next 30 years.

"GDP per capita is projected to increase by over 140 percent by 2050," FAO said in a report after a study performed in 21 counties. "As a consequence, the demand for animal-source foods will exponentially increase. In response to this demand, the livestock sector will deeply transform."

Not only cattle by 94 percent, the chicken population will also increase by 375 percent by 2050 in Kenya as there will be a major gain in productivity. Kenya has an estimated 43.8 million chicken contributing 5.1 percent of the livestock. The poultry sector produces more than 35000 tonnes of meat and 1.6 billion eggs annually. The study shows per capita consumption or the average Kenyan's consumption of livestock products is estimated at 16 kilogrammes of meat, 121 litres of milk and 45 eggs per person per year respectively, Business Daily Africa noted.

"Quantities of milk and cream processed increased by 10.6 percent from 410.6 million litres in 2017 to 454.1 million litres in 2018 while butter/ghee and cheese processing experienced a 10.8 percent and 15.5 percent growth, respectively, in 2018," the Economic Survey 2019 said.

The survey revealed by KNBS shows 2.78 million cows were slaughtered, being 7.3 percent higher than 2017's 2.59 million cows, which also saw 10.2 million sheep and goats slaughtered, an 11.3 percent rise from the 9.2 million sold to abattoirs in major towns.

By 2050, FAO estimated the increase of cattle production by 90 percent by 2050 while milk and beef production will rise to 17,000 tonnes and 2,000 tonnes respectively. During the same period, the chicken population is expected to increase to 178 million. The overall performance by the poultry and cattle industry is likely to improve sharply and meet the demand of projected rise in the human population.

Also Read: Kenya-Botswana in UNSC seat deal, countries sign new agreements to boost cooperation