Brazil's Lula becomes double-edged sword for the left

The good news for Brazil's left ahead of October presidential elections is that its biggest candidate, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, easily leads the polls. The bad news? He's in prison.

This bizarre situation leaves the once mighty Workers' Party in a state of turmoil over how to approach the October 7 vote.

A Datafolha poll on Wednesday confirmed that Lula's popularity is in no danger of deflating as the election nears. In fact, it has risen from 30 to 39 percent since June, 20 points clear of the nearest rival, right-winger Jair Bolsonaro.

"The people want Lula," the Workers' Party, which he founded and brought to power in his 2003-2010 presidencies, proclaimed.

Do they really, though? Polling numbers are not quite as clear on closer inspection.

Lula gets much of his backing from so-called spontaneous support, which reaches 20 percent of those polled by Datafolha. Bolsonaro got 15 percent spontaneous support, while none of the other candidates got more than 2 percent.

Lula, who has been a major political figure in Brazil for decades, as well as the subject of a long-running corruption saga, is already well known, while many of the others running have only just started their electoral campaigns.

Bolsonaro, notorious for his statements on women, gays, and approval of Brazil's 1964-85 dictatorship, has milked the old showbiz maxim of there being no such thing as bad publicity.

Crucially, 41 percent told Datafolha they were undecided.

"Lula is growing thanks to his brand... (and) because most of the other candidates are not known," said Jason Vieira, from Infinity Assets consultancy.

Lula, whose two terms were followed by the consecutive elections of his protege Dilma Rousseff, "has dominated the political panorama for 20 years or more," said Jose Augusto Guilhon Albuquerque, professor emeritus for international relations at Sao Paulo University.

"When he's not present, the electorate becomes very indecisive." In addition, even if Brazil appears deeply split to the left and right, Lula's presidency is largely remembered for its economic growth and successful programs to reduce social inequalities. At a time of economic disarray, the Workers' Party slogan of "Lula for president, so that Brazil can be happy again" resonates.

The twist, however, is that Lula is serving a 12-year sentence for corruption. His lawyers, with some backing from foreign human rights bodies, argue that he should be allowed on the ballot. But the decision will be up to Brazil's Supreme Electoral Tribunal -- and there is little hope of a positive response.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)