INSTANT VIEW-Turkey faces runoff election as Erdogan survives first test but remains at risk

Turkey appeared headed for a runoff presidential election after neither Tayyip Erdogan nor rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu cleared the threshold to win outright on Sunday, in a poll seen as a verdict on Erdogan's 20-year rule and increasingly authoritarian path. Following is reaction from political analysts and economists: HAKAN AKBAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC ADVISORY SERVICES, "The next two weeks will probably be the longest two weeks in Turkey's history and a lot will happen.

Turkey appeared headed for a runoff presidential election after neither Tayyip Erdogan nor rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu cleared the threshold to win outright on Sunday, in a poll seen as a verdict on Erdogan's 20-year rule and increasingly authoritarian path.

Following is reaction from political analysts and economists: HAKAN AKBAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC ADVISORY SERVICES,

"The next two weeks will probably be the longest two weeks in Turkey's history and a lot will happen. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency. Both sides will try to make a case for themselves but Erdogan will be in an advantage in a second round. Still, a lot can happen in the next two weeks." TIM ASH, ECONOMIST

"The reality is Kilicdaroglu's best chance was winning in the first round. Momentum has now massively shifted back to Erdogan. Self doubt will filter into opposition. Was Kemal Kilicdaroglu the best candidate? Uphill battle now." "Probably the worst result possible for markets = uncertainty, and another two weeks of that. Beyond that Erdogan's economic policies are simply unsustainable so there has to be change or risk of a major balance of payments crisis."

GALIP DALAY, ASSOCIATE FELLOW AT CHATHAM HOUSE "If the current numbers are confirmed by the Supreme Election Board, the governing coalition will go to the second round with numeric and psychological advantages. It has the majority in the parliament and Erdogan is poised to go to the second round with a lead over his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu."

"During the campaign period ahead of the runoff, president Erdogan is likely to emphasize stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament and double down on his national security focused language by framing the opposition to be in tacit coalition with the ‘terrorists’ and foreign powers."