China factor giving added weight to local polls in Taiwan

The elections are being portrayed as the largest ever on the island of 23 million, with about 19 million voters casting ballots for more than 11,000 local officials.

China and its growing pressure campaign loom large as Taiwan holds elections for mayors and other local officials Saturday, in what is partly seen as a referendum on the policies of independence-leaning President Tsai Ing-wen.

Driven from power two years ago, the opposition Nationalists are hoping to regain territory by counting on their pro-business image and a more accommodating line toward Beijing, which detests Tsai for her refusal to endorse its stance that the self-governing island democracy is a part of the Chinese nation.

The China factor and the potential impact on the next presidential election are giving added weight to the polls, said Alexander Huang, strategic studies professor at Taiwan's Tamkang University.

"It's more important than the usual local elections," Huang said.

"Confidence has been disrupted by the overall environment and the difficult relationship with the mainland."

Key races include mayoral offices in the capital Taipei and southern port of Kaohsiung, where the Nationalists and ruling Democratic Progressive Party are fighting for votes alongside independent candidates and those from smaller parties.

The elections are being portrayed as the largest ever on the island of 23 million, with about 19 million voters casting ballots for more than 11,000 local officials.

Economic growth, employment and pension reforms are also key issues, but while local issues may be of greatest importance to voters, the outcome will be presented nationally by both major parties as a "status check on the Tsai administration," said Derek Grossman, who studies Taiwan-China ties at the RAND Corporation.

Since her election in 2016, Tsai has walked a fine line on relations with China, maintaining Taiwan's de facto independent status that the vast majority of Taiwanese support, while avoiding calls from the more radical elements of her party for moves to declare formal separation from the mainland, from which it split amid civil war in 1949.

But she's also emphasised the importance of Taiwan's sovereignty, rejected Beijing's "One China" principle and sought to strengthen relations with the US and other countries similarly skeptical of China's motives while working to diversify the island's economy away from the Chinese market.

While ties between Washington and Beijing are at their lowest ebb in years, Taiwan is benefiting from greater US diplomatic and military assistance, despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties that were broken in 1979 when the US switched recognition to China.

Beijing's response has been to sever contacts with her administration, cut numbers of Chinese tourists visiting and further the island's diplomatic isolation by barring it from multinational forums and wooing away its dwindling number of diplomatic allies, now reduced to just 17.

China's authoritarian leader Xi Jinping — who has said "unification" with Taiwan can't be put off indefinitely — has also stepped up military intimidation with war games and aerial training near the island aimed at advertising Beijing's threat to bring it under its control by force if necessary.

Taiwanese officials have also warned that Beijing is seeking to sway voters through the spread of disinformation online similar to Russia's iinterfering in US elections.

The impact of those moves on Taiwanese voters is hard to gauge and by law, no public opinion surveys can be published within 10 days of the elections.

However, Timothy Rich, an expert on Taiwan electoral politics at Western Kentucky University, says his research on Taiwan's diplomatic relations and public opinion shows that, rather than blaming Tsai, voters are angry at Beijing for limiting Taiwan's international breathing space.

Yet, there's little doubt that Beijing is hoping diplomatic, economic, and military pressure points undermine and ultimately sabotage support for Tsai, who is also party chairwoman and faces re-election in 2020.

"If the DPP loses ground, it will serve as confirmation for Beijing that its strategy of undermining the DPP and Tsai is working ... and thus it'll likely proceed apace," Grossman said.

Still, the election will likely be a tough slog for the Nationalists, who ruled the island for half a century after Chiang Kai-shek relocated his government here following the victory of Mao Zedong's Communists in Beijing.