Bihar Election Exit Polls: Predicting the Future

Exit polls for the Bihar assembly elections mostly captured the overall trend but failed in predicting the scale, with 'Poll Diary' being the only accurate forecast. While most predicted a close contest, the NDA secured a decisive victory, surpassing 200 seats, as opposed to Mahagathbandhan's lower than expected performance.

Exit polls for the Bihar assembly elections largely captured the direction of the contest, yet stumbled in predicting its scale. Despite most predicting a tight race, the NDA surpassed expectations, securing over 200 seats. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan performed poorly, receiving fewer than 50 seats.

The little-known 'Poll Diary' emerged as the sole pollster accurately predicting the outcome, forecasting a significant victory for the NDA with their estimate of 184-209 seats compared to Mahagathbandhan's 32-49 seats. Other forecasts, such as Axis My India, inaccurately projected a closer contest.

Notably, Today's Chanakya and others varied in their predictions. Despite minor discrepancies, most exit polls anticipated the NDA's return to power, but underestimated the scale of its victory over the Mahagathbandhan. With the majority mark set at 122, the NDA's win reflects a significant political shift in Bihar.