Brexit: Julius Baer cuts chances of Halloween no-deal Brexit to 10%

Julius Baer has cut its estimate that the probability Britain will crash out of the European Union on Oct. 31 to 10% and sees the chance of a delay to the process at 75%, it said on Tuesday as the options left to Prime Minister Boris Johnson dwindled.

In the longer term, the fate of Brexit will be decided in a general election, said Patrik Lang, head of equities research at Julius Baer, noting there is a chance that the Conservative Party will become the largest party, but not necessarily win a majority.

As a result, he sees the longer-term probability of a hard Brexit at 35%, with the chances of a deal with Brussels being struck at 50%.