Chances for late-Oct U.S. hurricane falling, forecasters say

"The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been slightly below normal," the forecasters said in the final update of the season. For the rest of the month, "anomalously strong vertical wind shear forecast across the entire tropical Atlantic and Caribbean" provided little support for tropical cyclone development that would threaten the Americas.

The chances of a hurricane striking the United States in late October are declining, forecasters at Colorado State University said in a closely watched report on Thursday. "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been slightly below normal," the forecasters said in the final update of the season.

For the rest of the month, "anomalously strong vertical wind shear forecast across the entire tropical Atlantic and Caribbean" provided little support for tropical cyclone development that would threaten the Americas. Before the hurricane season, Colorado State, private and U.S. government forecasters had called for an above-average hurricane season because of warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and reduced wind shear across the southern United States.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30. Tropical storm activity typically peaks in August and September. Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project had initially forecast four major hurricanes out of eight hurricanes developing from among 18 named tropical storms. So far two major hurricanes have developed, including Hurricane Ian, which claimed 137 lives, out of five hurricanes from 11 tropical storms.

Over the previous 30 years, there were an average of 3.2 major hurricanes, 7.2 hurricanes and 14.4 named storms.