Tropical storm Arthur forms near Texas coast, with life-threatening flooding expected

Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named system of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, is forecast to bring life-threatening flooding to the Southeastern U.S. and potentially disrupt oil production.

Tropical Storm Arthur formed near the Texas coast and is expected to bring life-threatening flooding across ‌portions of the Southeastern U.S., the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday. The storm — the first named system of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season — was located about 40 miles (60 km) east-northeast of Port O'Connor, Texas, on Wednesday morning, producing maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 km/h). A tropical storm warning is in effect ‌from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, an important energy corridor that includes major refineries and liquefied natural gas processing facilities around Port Arthur and ‌Lake Charles. Tony Dupont, COO at Earth Science Associates, said that a model based on past storms is forecasting that around 10,000 barrels of oil could be lost because of shut-ins at offshore platforms in the path of the storm.

"Part of the past losses occur due to an abundance of caution for personnel and other dangers, and that is part of the data in ⁠the model, ​though for the current storm we ⁠haven’t seen those actions, so it is likely to be on the low side of the forecast," he said in an emailed response to questions. The Gulf Coast refining region that ⁠runs from Corpus Christi to Pascagoula, Mississippi, holds around half of total U.S. refining capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day (bpd). The largest U.S. refinery is the Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva Enterprises' ​Port Arthur, Texas, plant, which has throughput of 730,000 barrels per day, according to the company. Other major Gulf Coast refineries in the ⁠potential path of the storm include Exxon Mobil's facility in Beaumont, Texas. LNG giants including Cheniere and Venture Global also have major liquefaction facilities along the coastal region. Exxon Mobil, Motiva Enterprises, Cheniere and Venture ⁠Global ​did not immediately respond to requests for comment about storm preparations. Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of five to 10 inches. Isolated higher totals near 20 inches are expected through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along ⁠with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, the Miami-based NHC said. “Very heavy rainfall is expected to fall across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi, where ⁠there can be significant and even life-threatening ⁠flooding, before spreading northeastward through the Carolinas and Georgia,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. Significant rain is expected to last through Friday across the Southeast, and the zone of greatest risk will shift from far eastern Texas and Louisiana ‌to Georgia by Friday, ‌according to AccuWeather.