Africa Faces a Worsening El Niño Threat as 162 Million Children Enter the Risk Zone

More than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa live in areas exposed to the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño, with drought, extreme heat and flooding threatening food security, health, water access, education and protection. UNICEF says forecasts provide a critical opportunity to act before impacts intensify, but less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, exposing a persistent gap between early warning and early financing.

More than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa live in areas exposed to the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño, putting nutrition, health, water access, education and child protection under growing pressure. The scale is alarming, but the deeper problem is not simply the climate hazard itself: governments and humanitarian agencies already have forecasts showing where risks could intensify, yet the financing needed to act before disaster strikes remains severely limited.

According to UNICEF, less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, even as drought, extreme heat and flooding threaten countries already grappling with food insecurity, fragile health systems and displacement. The emerging crisis poses a larger test for humanitarian policy: whether early-warning systems can finally be matched by early financing, rather than triggering action only after suffering becomes visible.

The Danger Is Not One Climate Shock, but Several Crises Colliding

El Niño is rarely experienced as a single, isolated event. Across Eastern and Southern Africa, drought, extreme heat and flooding can affect food production, water supplies, disease patterns, schools and household incomes at the same time, creating overlapping pressures that are especially difficult for children to withstand.

UNICEF has identified urgent risks across Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. These countries are not facing identical conditions, but many already have communities dealing with food insecurity, stretched services or other vulnerabilities that could make additional climate shocks significantly harder to absorb.

Somalia demonstrates the scale of that exposure. Under the most severe scenario mapping, flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people, potentially driving displacement and disrupting access to food, healthcare, clean water and education. The number is a scenario rather than a certain outcome, but it indicates the level of contingency planning that may be required.

In Ethiopia, tens of thousands of children are likely to be affected, particularly in areas already facing severe food insecurity. South Sudan faces an especially complex combination of drought, extreme heat and localized flooding that could deepen malnutrition and food insecurity while increasing disease risks and compounding existing threats of famine and displacement.

The humanitarian significance lies in these interactions. A flood can become a health emergency when water systems fail, an education crisis when schools close and a protection crisis when families are displaced. Drought can simultaneously weaken livelihoods, reduce food availability and increase pressure on already fragile nutrition services.

For children, the consequences can extend well beyond the immediate weather event. Missed schooling, deteriorating nutrition, unsafe water, displacement and exposure to violence can turn a temporary climate shock into a setback that affects development and wellbeing long after rainfall or temperatures return to normal.

The World Has Better Forecasts, but Still Finances Crisis After It Happens

The most important policy question raised by the 2026/2027 El Niño threat is whether humanitarian systems can act before conditions become catastrophic. Forecasting increasingly gives governments and aid agencies time to identify areas where drought, flooding or extreme heat may become severe. In practical terms, that means nutrition supplies can be moved before roads become inaccessible, vaccination and disease surveillance can be strengthened before outbreaks intensify, and schools can prepare alternative learning arrangements before disruption becomes unavoidable.

However, UNICEF says less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action,creating a striking disconnect: the international system may know more about where a crisis is likely to emerge, while still directing most resources only after humanitarian needs have already escalated.

Anticipatory financing attempts to reverse that sequence. Instead of waiting until families lose livelihoods or children become severely malnourished, resources are released when forecasts and agreed triggers indicate that a serious shock is approaching. The objective is not to predict every consequence perfectly, but to reduce exposure while intervention remains cheaper and more effective.

UNICEF is seeking US$173 million within its existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children requirements to support anticipatory and life-saving assistance across the 13 priority countries. The emphasis on flexible, early financing reflects a basic operational reality: money arriving after roads flood, food stocks disappear or disease spreads cannot buy back the preventive opportunities that existed weeks earlier.

UNICEF cites an estimate that every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to US$15 in future recovery costs, reinforcing the argument that preparedness can be less expensive than rebuilding after losses have multiplied.

Protecting Children Means Acting Before Malnutrition, Disease and Displacement Spike

The required response reaches far beyond distributing emergency food. UNICEF is calling for nutrition supplies to be pre-positioned, early screening and treatment expanded, and health systems prepared for greater pressure before climate impacts peak.

Water, sanitation and hygiene systems are another critical line of defence. Floods can contaminate water sources, while drought can reduce access to safe water altogether. Strengthening disease surveillance, maintaining essential vaccination services and securing sanitation infrastructure can therefore prevent a climate shock from evolving into a wider public-health emergency.

Schools also need to be treated as part of climate preparedness rather than an afterthought. Reinforcing vulnerable infrastructure and preparing safe alternative learning spaces in advance could reduce prolonged disruption, particularly where flooding or displacement makes normal classrooms inaccessible.

Child protection measures become equally important when households are forced to move or lose income. UNICEF is calling for expanded psychosocial support, family tracing and reunification services and measures to prevent gender-based violence, recognising that emergencies can create risks that extend beyond immediate physical survival.

Shock-responsive social protection could provide another bridge between forecasting and household resilience. Linking early-warning systems with anticipatory cash assistance would allow families to prepare before a shock intensifies, potentially helping them protect food consumption, transport themselves to safer areas or avoid resorting to damaging coping strategies.

Anticipatory action works only when systems are connected. Meteorological warnings must trigger financing; financing must reach government and humanitarian mechanisms; and those mechanisms must be capable of delivering nutrition, health, water, education, protection and cash assistance before the window for prevention closes.

The Real Test Is Whether Governments and Donors Act Before the Images Arrive

The coming months will reveal whether the international humanitarian system is prepared to treat forecasts as a basis for action rather than simply as warnings. The two key indicators will be:

• Financing: UNICEF's US$173 million requirement provides a clear benchmark for whether donors are willing to release resources before El Niño's most severe effects emerge, rather than waiting until humanitarian appeals are accompanied by images of widespread malnutrition, flooded communities or displacement.
• Operational readiness: Supplies must be positioned in vulnerable areas, health and nutrition systems reinforced, schools prepared and social-protection mechanisms capable of scaling rapidly. These actions require coordination across governments, international organisations and national institutions long before an emergency declaration becomes necessary.

There will also be uncertainty. Not every forecast will materialise at its most severe level, and climate impacts will vary across countries and communities. However, uncertainty is inherent in anticipatory action: waiting until every outcome is certain usually means waiting until prevention is no longer possible. That is what makes the 2026/2027 El Niño threat a larger test of humanitarian reform.