The Hidden Cost of Recycling: Why Developing Nations Are Paying the Price for Rich Countries' Waste

Global plastic waste trade fell 7.7% in 2024, but exports from wealthy OECD countries to developing economies rose 15%, raising concerns over pollution and recycling capacity. The OECD urges stronger waste regulations, better recycling infrastructure and responsible investment to protect developing countries while creating sustainable business opportunities.

Global plastic waste trade is shrinking, but a worrying trend is emerging as wealthy countries increasingly export lower-value plastic waste to developing economies, raising concerns about environmental risks, recycling capacity, and regulatory oversight. A new report, Monitoring Trade in Plastic Waste and Scrap 2026, published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and prepared by researchers Baptiste Saez, Frithjof Laubinger and Peter Börkey from the OECD Environment Directorate, reveals that global plastic waste trade declined by 7.7% to 6.2 million tonnes in 2024. However, exports from OECD countries to non-OECD economies rose 15%, creating new challenges for governments, development institutions, and recycling businesses.

Plastic Waste Trade Is Falling, but the Burden Is Shifting

Global plastic waste trade has declined by more than 50% since 2014, largely following China's National Sword policy, which restricted foreign waste imports. China and Hong Kong collectively reduced their imports from 6.6 million tonnes in 2017 to approximately 1 million tonnes in 2018, redirecting shipments towards Southeast Asian countries.

International controls introduced under the Basel Convention and OECD regulations in 2021 initially reduced waste exports from developed to developing economies. However, OECD exports to non-OECD countries increased by 220,000 tonnes, or 19%, in 2023, followed by another 210,000 tonnes, or 15%, in 2024.

Malaysia remained the largest non-OECD destination, receiving 670,000 tonnes of OECD plastic waste in 2024. Vietnam received 430,000 tonnes, while Indonesia imported 260,000 tonnes. Türkiye recorded a 22% increase in total imports, equivalent to approximately 90,000 additional tonnes.

These trends raise concerns that developing countries could face increasing environmental pressures if imported waste exceeds their recycling capacity. Governments must strengthen inspections, enforce waste quality standards and ensure that recycling facilities can safely process incoming materials.

Rich Nations Export More as Developing Markets Face New Risks

OECD countries accounted for 90% of global plastic waste exports and 64% of imports in 2024, compared with 67% and 20%, respectively, in 2014. Trade between OECD members represented 59% of global shipments, with exchanges among European OECD economies alone accounting for 48%.

Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States were the five largest OECD exporters, collectively accounting for 2.9 million tonnes, or 52% of OECD exports.

Japan exported approximately 620,000 tonnes to non-OECD countries, representing 90% of its total plastic waste exports. Australia directed nearly all its exports towards non-OECD markets, while New Zealand and South Korea exported approximately 90% and 88%, respectively.

The report also identifies a widening price gap between plastic waste traded within OECD countries and shipments sent to non-OECD economies. Lower prices may indicate poorer sorting, contamination or materials that are harder to recycle, although price differences alone cannot establish waste quality.

For developing economies, imported plastic waste can provide cheaper raw materials, support recycling businesses and generate employment. However, poorly managed shipments could increase processing costs, create pollution and reduce the capacity available to recycle domestic waste.

India recorded a 32% decline in plastic waste shipments, equivalent to approximately 30,000 tonnes, in 2024, falling outside the world's 20 largest import destinations. The report does not establish the reasons behind this reduction.

Recycling Industry Faces a Billion-Dollar Question: Opportunity or Liability?

The changing trade landscape presents investment opportunities in recycling technology, waste sorting, material recovery and recycled plastic manufacturing.

In 2024, plastic waste classified as polymers not elsewhere specified reached approximately 2.9 million tonnes, while ethylene polymer waste accounted for 2.4 million tonnes. Styrene polymer waste increased by 36% to 450,000 tonnes, while vinyl chloride polymer waste rose by 8% to 200,000 tonnes.

Despite stricter international controls, OECD exports of vinyl chloride waste to non-OECD destinations increased by 6%. Japan remained the leading exporter, while Malaysia was the largest recipient.

For private businesses, investment in modern sorting equipment, contamination detection and efficient recycling facilities could improve material quality and competitiveness.

However, recycling companies face financial risks because the value of plastic waste is linked to virgin plastic prices. Fluctuating market conditions, regulatory changes and poor-quality imported materials can affect profitability.

The report also identifies Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland as important trading hubs, highlighting the economic role of ports, logistics infrastructure and regional recycling networks.

Governments and Global Investors Must Rethink the Plastic Waste Economy

Although international trade represents only around 1.6% of estimated global plastic waste generation, concentrated shipments can create significant environmental challenges for importing countries.

For governments, the priority is to improve customs monitoring, strengthen environmental regulations and ensure that imported waste reaches facilities with adequate processing capacity.

International development partners, including multilateral development banks, could support recycling infrastructure, waste collection systems, technical training and stronger environmental monitoring. Such investments could help developing economies recover valuable materials while reducing pollution risks.

Private investors could benefit from expanding demand for cleaner recycled materials, but projects should be evaluated against feedstock quality, environmental compliance and long-term commercial viability.

The OECD also highlights major gaps in global waste trade statistics. Existing data cannot reliably determine whether imported plastic waste is recycled, incinerated or landfilled, making environmental accountability difficult.

The findings suggest that governments should improve waste tracking, strengthen international data sharing and encourage investment in domestic recycling systems rather than relying excessively on imported waste.

Ultimately, the report warns that declining global trade volumes do not necessarily mean declining environmental risks. The real challenge is ensuring that plastic waste generates economic value without transferring pollution and disposal costs to countries least equipped to manage them.