ANALYSTS VIEW-How markets stand ahead of Trump's news conference over China's moves on Hong Kong


Reuters | Singapore | Updated: 29-05-2020 13:33 IST | Created: 29-05-2020 12:37 IST
ANALYSTS VIEW-How markets stand ahead of Trump's news conference over China's moves on Hong Kong
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Investors globally were anxiously awaiting U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference later on Friday, when he is expected to give his response to China's moves to extend control over Hong Kong. China's parliament has advanced security legislation for the city, which many lawyers, diplomats, and investors fear could erode the city's autonomy and freedoms. Trump has vowed a tough response. The exact time of the news conference has yet to be made public.

Here is what analysts think he may say and their views on what that means for markets:

SHANE OLIVER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, AMP CAPITAL, SYDNEY:

"I think there are two scenarios, one is where Trump tears up the Phase 1 trade deal with China, head back towards putting more tariffs on China (and) they might remove the special status that Hong Kong enjoys - that's probably the worst-case scenario. "The other scenario is where he announces sanctions on officials seen as implementing the security law - that might cause a bit of angst in the market but I think it'd soon be forgotten about.

"If it's at the relatively mild end, then I don't think it would derail the recovery bull market, but if it's at the more extreme end with tariffs and harsh treatment of Hong Kong, then I think it gets more problematic."

MOH SIONG SIM, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE

"I think the market is still fearful that it might escalate into something more serious. If he was serious with trade tariffs, that would have a meaningful impact. "But if it's banning some Chinese students from studying in the U.S. or freezing the assets of some officials, I think that's mostly symbolic. There'd be some nervousness, but dollar/yuan doesn't really weaken in a meaningful way with those moves.

"You can never quite predict Trump. But I think this year it's really difficult for him to do tough action. He can talk tough...but he needs the economy to improve."

STEPHEN INNES, CHIEF STRATEGIST, AXICORP, BANGKOK

"The market thinks the security law headline is mostly behind, so it will be looking for the actual list of U.S. reactions and whether it will make a change on Hong Kong's special trade status. "It seemed unlikely this moment; hence dollar/yuan is trading relatively tame."

LOUIS KUIJS, HEAD OF ASIA ECONOMICS, OXFORD ECONOMICS, HONG KONG

"While we don't think drastic steps towards the withdrawal of the special status are very likely at this point, their impact on Hong Kong would be major. It would hurt business and market confidence in Hong Kong and, importantly, would have serious implications for its position as a global financial hub.

"From a long-term investment or strategic perspective, drastic U.S. moves may reduce the willingness of corporates to allow their cash or capital to be placed in Hong Kong and use Hong Kong as their financial and banking hub in the region."

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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