India's 2024 Southwest Monsoon Exceeds Expectations, Spurs Agricultural Optimism

India experienced an above-normal monsoon season in 2024 with 108% of the long period average rainfall, as per the India Meteorological Department. Regions like Central India and the South Peninsula saw significant rainfall, boosting agricultural prospects. However, the Northeast lagged with only 86% of its average rainfall.

India experienced an above-normal monsoon season in 2024, recording 108% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). By definition, the LPA is the average rainfall recorded over a specific region and interval, typically a month or season, over a long period.

IMD data revealed that the rainfall this year surpassed the forecast of 106%, with a variation of 4% on both sides. The monsoon demonstrated stronger-than-anticipated performance, particularly in regions like Central India, which received 119% of its LPA, and the South Peninsula at 114%. Northwest India also fared well with 107% of its LPA.

However, the Northeast lagged, recording only 86% of its LPA. The monsoon core zone, crucial for rain-fed agriculture, saw 122% of its LPA, promising a positive agricultural outlook. Among India's 36 meteorological subdivisions, 9% experienced large excess rainfall, 26% saw excess rainfall, and 54% received normal levels. Conversely, 11% of the country, including regions like Arunachal Pradesh and Punjab, faced deficient rainfall.

Monthly rainfall distribution varied, with June at 89% of the LPA, while July, August, and September were stronger months with 109%, 115%, and 112% respectively. The monsoon advanced over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on time (May 19) and made an early landfall in Kerala on May 30. The season covered the entire country by July 2, ahead of its usual date of July 8, and began withdrawing on September 23, six days later than usual.

IMD's accurate forecast for the monsoon onset in Kerala for the nineteenth consecutive year, excluding 2015, has bolstered confidence in their prediction models. The timely and above-normal monsoon raises hopes for a positive impact on India's agriculture and overall economy.

(With inputs from agencies.)