Three decades in, Europe’s renewable energy shift remains incomplete

Major initiatives such as the European Green Deal, Fit for 55, and REPowerEU further accelerated investment, particularly after the energy security shock triggered by geopolitical tensions. These measures reinforced the link between climate policy and energy independence, adding urgency to the transition. However, the research make

A new detailed analysis shows that while Europe’s electricity sector has transformed at speed, the broader energy transition remains deeply uneven. Progress in transport and heating and cooling, the sectors that account for a large share of emissions and energy use, continues to lag far behind, putting long-term climate targets at risk.

Published in the journal Energies, the study titled Sectoral Dynamics of Sustainable Energy Transition in EU27 Countries (1990–2023): A Multi-Method Approach, examines renewable energy adoption across all 27 EU member states over a 34-year period. Using a combination of long-term data analysis, econometric modeling, and country clustering, the study delivers a detailed assessments to date of how Europe’s energy transition has unfolded across sectors, regions, and policy phases.

Electricity leads the transition while end-use sectors fall behind

The study confirms that electricity generation has been the undisputed engine of Europe’s renewable energy transition. Over the period from 1990 to 2023, the share of renewables in electricity rose dramatically, surpassing half of total generation in leading member states. This progress reflects decades of targeted policies, falling costs for wind and solar technologies, and increasing grid integration across borders.

On the other hand, renewable adoption in transport and heating and cooling remains strikingly low. Despite incremental gains, renewables account for only a small fraction of energy use in transport, while heating and cooling continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels and legacy infrastructure. This imbalance highlights a critical flaw in the EU’s transition model: clean power alone does not guarantee system-wide decarbonization.

The research shows that sectoral contributions to the overall renewable energy increase are highly uneven. Electricity accounts for the largest share of progress, followed by heating. Transport contributes only modestly, while sectors such as agriculture, housing, and services have, in some cases, seen declining renewable shares over time. These patterns underscore that electrification has not translated smoothly into end-use transformation.

Several structural factors explain this gap. In transport, dependence on liquid fuels, slow vehicle fleet turnover, and limited charging and refueling infrastructure constrain renewable uptake. In heating and cooling, the slow renovation of Europe’s building stock, reliance on gas networks, and high upfront costs for alternatives such as heat pumps continue to delay change. These barriers persist despite successive rounds of EU legislation.

The study’s long-term perspective also reveals that policy milestones align more closely with electricity sector gains than with progress elsewhere. While directives such as RED I, RED II, and RED III helped scale renewable power generation, they failed to generate comparable momentum in transport and thermal applications. As a result, the EU risks locking in a two-speed transition that undermines its climate neutrality ambitions.

Deep divides persist between EU member states

The study exposes stark regional disparities across the EU27. Countries cluster into distinct groups based on their renewable energy performance, reflecting differences in natural resource endowments, infrastructure investment, policy capacity, and political commitment.

Nordic and Baltic countries consistently lead the transition. Early investment in hydropower, bioenergy, and wind, combined with strong governance frameworks, has allowed these states to achieve high renewable shares across multiple sectors. Their progress demonstrates the benefits of long-term planning, public acceptance, and grid flexibility.

A second group of countries has advanced primarily through electricity-led strategies. These states show steady growth in renewable power but remain reliant on fossil fuels in transport and heating. Their experience highlights the limits of focusing on generation without parallel investment in end-use systems.

At the other end of the spectrum are countries with persistently low renewable shares. These states face structural constraints such as high urban density, limited domestic renewable resources, fossil-heavy energy systems, or slow policy implementation. Despite operating under the same EU-wide targets, their progress lags significantly behind that of frontrunners.

The study’s econometric analysis sheds light on why these differences persist. Economic growth boosts renewable adoption most strongly in countries that already have high renewable penetration and flexible energy systems. In these cases, market mechanisms and private investment accelerate deployment. In lower-performing countries, however, growth alone is insufficient. Regulatory stability, public infrastructure investment, and institutional capacity play a much larger role.

This finding challenges the assumption that uniform market-based incentives will deliver uniform outcomes. Instead, the research shows that one-size-fits-all policies risk widening existing gaps. Countries with weaker starting positions require tailored support to overcome structural and financial barriers.

Policy successes mask structural weaknesses

The study provides a detailed assessment of how EU renewable energy policy has evolved since the 1990s. Over time, the bloc moved from voluntary national targets to a centralized, binding framework supported by monitoring, reporting, and verification mechanisms. This shift helped drive rapid expansion in renewable electricity and strengthened policy coordination across member states.

Major initiatives such as the European Green Deal, Fit for 55, and REPowerEU further accelerated investment, particularly after the energy security shock triggered by geopolitical tensions. These measures reinforced the link between climate policy and energy independence, adding urgency to the transition.

However, the research makes clear that policy coherence at the EU level does not guarantee effective implementation on the ground. Despite increasingly ambitious targets, progress in transport and heating remains slow, reflecting deeper structural rigidities that policy alone has not resolved.

The study identifies several critical weaknesses. First, infrastructure development has not kept pace with ambition, particularly in charging networks, district heating, and grid modernization. Second, financial incentives often fail to address upfront cost barriers faced by households and small businesses. Third, administrative complexity and permitting delays continue to slow project deployment in many regions.

The decomposition analysis shows that technological improvements and efficiency gains drive renewable growth in some countries, while structural transformation plays a larger role in others. This diversity reinforces the need for differentiated policy instruments that reflect national and sectoral conditions.

The research also highlights social and workforce dimensions of the transition. Rapid expansion in renewable electricity has increased demand for skilled labor in engineering, construction, and system management. At the same time, lagging sectors risk workforce disruption without adequate retraining and support. A just transition, the study argues, requires aligning energy policy with labor market and social cohesion strategies.

What the findings mean for Europe’s climate goals

The EU’s renewable energy policies have delivered measurable progress but fall short of what is required to meet long-term climate neutrality goals. While the electricity sector demonstrates what coordinated policy and investment can achieve, the slow pace of change in transport and heating threatens to undermine overall emissions reductions.

Closing this gap will require a shift in strategy. The authors argue that aggregate targets must give way to sector-specific interventions that address distinct barriers. For transport, this includes accelerating electrification, expanding alternative fuels, and integrating renewable energy into logistics and mobility systems. For heating and cooling, it means scaling building renovation, supporting heat pump deployment, and modernizing thermal networks.

The study also calls for greater attention to country-level differences. EU funding instruments and regulatory frameworks should prioritize capacity building in lagging member states, ensuring that policy ambition translates into practical outcomes. Without this, regional inequalities will persist, weakening the cohesion of the energy transition.

The research estimates that achieving 2030 targets will require a sustained acceleration in renewable adoption across all sectors. This will demand not only financial investment but also political commitment, administrative reform, and public engagement. The transition is no longer a question of technology readiness but of institutional and societal alignment.