Thailand’s Next Growth Leap Depends on Skills, Innovation and Cities

Thailand could reach high-income status by 2037 if it raises productivity, helps businesses move into higher-value industries and creates stronger economic opportunities beyond Bangkok, according to a new World Bank Group report launched at the Bangkok Business Summit 2026. Titled Building Thailand's Future Today, the report offers a roadmap for an innovation-driven economy capable of producing better-paid jobs, supporting competitive companies and spreading prosperity across regions. Its central estimate is ambitious: Thailand needs annual GDP per capita growth of about 5.4 percent to cross the high-income threshold within the next 11 years.

Five industries could power a higher-value economy

The report describes 'upgrading' as a shift from growth built heavily on costs and established production models toward an economy shaped by technology, specialised knowledge, innovation and greater domestic value creation. Thailand already has industrial experience, global trade connections, a strong tourism identity and an expanding digital market, giving the country a practical base from which to move into more sophisticated activities rather than starting from scratch.

Five sectors stand out as industries of the future: advanced manufacturing, sustainable and wellness tourism, digital services, agrifood and creative industries. Each offers opportunities to combine Thailand's existing strengths with new technologies and skilled employment. Advanced factories can support higher-value production, digital services can connect Thai talent with international markets, modern agrifood businesses can improve earnings throughout rural supply chains, and creative industries can turn culture, design and local knowledge into commercially valuable products. Sustainable and wellness tourism could bring greater income to communities while encouraging visitors to stay longer and spend more widely.

Competitive firms need room to enter, grow and innovate

Economic renewal will depend on the ability of businesses to enter markets, expand their operations and compete on fair terms. Stronger competition, wider access to finance and closer trade integration could give startups and small and medium-sized enterprises a better chance of becoming productive formal businesses. Deeper links between foreign investors and domestic suppliers could also help Thai firms gain technical knowledge, improve management practices and participate in more valuable parts of international supply chains.

Stephen N. Ndegwa, World Bank Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar, said the country has achieved transformative growth within a generation before and has the capacity to do so again. Reaching that point will require cooperation among government, businesses and development partners, backed by financing and reforms that translate new ideas into productive investment. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, said Thailand's high-income ambition remains achievable if more firms are able to scale, compete and create quality jobs while the benefits reach communities throughout the country.

Skills and productive cities can widen access to better jobs

Thailand's workforce will need stronger foundational, vocational, artificial intelligence, technology, engineering and mathematics skills as businesses compete increasingly through knowledge and innovation rather than low labour costs. Lifelong learning will become more important for workers who need to adapt during longer careers, while better social mobility and wider participation in productive employment can ensure that economic change does not leave older workers, young people or disadvantaged communities behind.

Cities will shape where these opportunities emerge. The report calls for stronger secondary cities that can attract investment, support local businesses and create good jobs closer to where people live. Bangkok must become more productive, environmentally sustainable and innovation-friendly while continuing to serve as the country's main connection to global markets. With the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings scheduled to take place in Bangkok in October, Thailand has a timely platform for turning its development vision into partnerships, investment and reforms that people can experience through better work, stronger businesses and more vibrant communities.