Air cargo demand rises 7.7% in September; Soaring Fuel Costs Squeeze Airline Margins

Demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), outpaced the expansion in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), pushing the global cargo load factor up 2.2 percentage points to 47.9%.

Global air cargo demand rose 7.7% in September 2026 compared with the same month a year earlier, with every region reporting growth, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). International operations recorded an 8.6% increase in demand, adding to a month of expansion across the industry. Capacity grew more slowly, increasing 2.7% across the total market and 3.3% on international services.

Stronger global trade and manufacturing supported demand, with AI-related shipments helping Pacific routes record another month of double-digit growth. Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, said the availability of goods to transport was strong, but rising fuel costs were making profitable operations more difficult. Jet fuel prices had more than doubled from a year earlier, and cargo yields had failed to keep pace with that increase.

Demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), outpaced the expansion in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), pushing the global cargo load factor up 2.2 percentage points to 47.9%. North America recorded the fastest demand growth among the six regions, supported by a relatively small increase in capacity. The Middle East posted the slowest demand growth, with its capacity expansion exceeding the increase in cargo traffic.

Trade and manufacturing strengthen as fuel costs climb

Global trade increased 3.6% year-on-year in August, extending its run of consecutive monthly annual growth to 42 months. Manufacturing indicators also strengthened in August, with the Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers' Index rising 0.7 points to 53.8 and the New Export Orders Index gaining 0.5 points to 51.9, their highest readings in five years. These conditions supported air cargo demand, but September's 17.5% monthly jump in jet fuel prices, taking them 103.4% above a year earlier, added substantial pressure to operating costs.

Regional results show different capacity pressures

Asia-Pacific airlines, representing 35.8% of industry CTK in 2025, recorded demand growth of 8.6% and capacity growth of 4.9%, with their load factor rising 1.7 percentage points to 50.7%. North American carriers, accounting for 24.6% of the market, reported an 11.8% demand increase against capacity growth of just 0.8%, lifting their load factor 4.3 percentage points to 43.9%. North America's load factor improvement was the largest among the regions, reflecting the considerable gap between traffic growth and additional capacity.

European carriers, with a 21.4% market share, saw demand increase 4.5% as capacity contracted 1.6%, raising their load factor 3.2 percentage points to 54.6%. African airlines, accounting for 2.1% of industry CTK, recorded demand growth of 4.7% and a capacity decline of 1.2%, bringing their load factor to 47.0% after a 2.7-percentage-point increase. Both regions carried more cargo against reduced capacity, with Europe recording the highest load factor in the regional results.

Middle Eastern carriers, representing 13.2% of the market, reported demand growth of 3.8% against a 7.0% capacity increase, reducing their load factor 1.4 percentage points to 44.0%. Latin American and Caribbean airlines, with a 2.9% market share, recorded a 6.7% increase in demand and 7.6% capacity growth, bringing their load factor down 0.3 percentage points to 34.3%. These were the only two regions where capacity grew faster than demand, producing the regional declines in cargo load factors.

Pacific routes lead a mixed trade lane picture

Asia–North America recorded the strongest growth among the major trade lanes in September, with AI-related shipments helping support the Pacific market's double-digit expansion. Growth on routes within Asia ranked next, followed by Europe–North America and Europe–Asia, showing continued expansion across several major trading corridors. Middle East-linked routes remained under pressure, with traffic declining on both Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia services despite the increase in overall demand reported by Middle Eastern carriers.